Willem II 1-1 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Jong Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Willem II and Jong Ajax meet at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Willem II (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Koning Willem II Stadion, Willem II have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Willem II. A 0.80 PPG lead over Jong Ajax (2.50 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Willem II register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Jong Ajax in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Willem II lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Jong Ajax winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 60% and Jong Ajax 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Willem II 64% | Jong Ajax 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 3.07 xG and Jong Ajax 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.336 / defence 0.867 | Jong Ajax attack 1.042 / defence 1.415. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.433. Willem II carry an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — their λ of 3.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.415 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Willem II games / 58 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 72% | Draw 15% | Jong Ajax 12%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.39 | Draw 6.67 | Jong Ajax 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (72%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (3.07 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.37 combined xG gives a 81% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 70% | Jong Ajax 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 72% | Draw 15% | Jong Ajax 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 70% | xG Willem II 3.07 / Jong Ajax 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.336 / def 0.867 | Jong Ajax attack 1.042 / def 1.415 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Willem II (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.07
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Jong Ajax xG
70%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Willem II vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 January 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Jong Ajax?
Willem II 1 - 1 Jong Ajax.
Where is Willem II vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Jong Ajax part of?
Willem II vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 72% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 12% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Willem II and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong Ajax?
Record (3 meetings): Willem II 2W | Draws 0 | Jong Ajax 1W.
What form are Willem II and Jong Ajax in?
Willem II (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Jong Ajax (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Willem II's attack at 1.34x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 3.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (1.04x) against Willem II's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 3-0 (6.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
72%
1.38
15%
6.46
12%
8.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
3 – 0
6.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.07
Willem II xG
Total xG
4.37
1.29
Jong Ajax xG
1.38
72%
Home win
6.46
15%
Draw
8.14
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
5%
21.56
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
1%
175.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Willem II and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 3.07 expected goals for Willem II and 1.29 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 4.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 33W 14D 11L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Ajax's form line: 17W 17D 24L from 58 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Ajax.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Willem II have posted 2.32 PPG from 28 outings (21W 2D 5L).
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 5W 9D 14L from 28 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Willem II are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.76 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Jong Ajax in 74%.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 33W 14D 11L in their last 58 games (1.95 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 17W 17D 24L in their last 58 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Jong Ajax away?
Willem II's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.32 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Willem II or Jong Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Jong Ajax in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
1
Draws
2
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong Ajax?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, Jong Ajax have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Jong Ajax 2-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Jong Ajax?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Willem II, 82% for Jong Ajax — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Willem II and 71% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Willem II's games and 82% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Willem II's matches and 71% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Willem II and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II and Jong Ajax share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as Willem II and Jong Ajax drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 3.07 xG and Jong Ajax 1.29 xG, a combined 4.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Willem II fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.34 / defence 0.87 against Jong Ajax attack 1.04 / defence 1.42, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 72% | Draw 15% | Jong Ajax 12%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 64%, Jong Ajax 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.