Den Bosch 0-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Eindhoven (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Den Bosch face FC Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 9 as Den Bosch welcome FC Eindhoven to Stadion De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. FC Eindhoven's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Den Bosch's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Eindhoven in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, FC Eindhoven have the better historical record — 4 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Den Bosch.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2023, ended 1–4 with FC Eindhoven winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Eindhoven have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 39% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 54% versus FC Eindhoven 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 70% | FC Eindhoven 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 0.96 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.963 / defence 1.072 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.750 / defence 0.636. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.391. FC Eindhoven's defence strength of 0.636 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Den Bosch games / 46 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 31% | Draw 30% | FC Eindhoven 39%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | FC Eindhoven 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Den Bosch 60% | FC Eindhoven 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 6 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 31% | Draw 30% | FC Eindhoven 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Den Bosch 0.96 / FC Eindhoven 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.963 / def 1.072 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.750 / def 0.636 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.12
FC Eindhoven xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 October 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Den Bosch 0 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 31% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven?
Record (4 meetings): Den Bosch 0W | Draws 0 | FC Eindhoven 4W.
What form are Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.96x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
31%
3.24
30%
3.33
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.08
1.12
FC Eindhoven xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
15%
6.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 14.0 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.12 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Den Bosch come into this having played 46 games, going 13W 5D 28L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.50 PPG from 46 outings (18W 15D 13L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Den Bosch's home form reads 9W 3D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.26 points per game from 23 outings (7W 8D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.37 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 13W 5D 28L in their last 46 games (0.96 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 18W 15D 13L in their last 46 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.30 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Den Bosch have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2023, when FC Eindhoven won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
1
Draws
7
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, FC Eindhoven have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Den Bosch 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 39% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 65%, FC Eindhoven 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Den Bosch) and 39% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Den Bosch's games and 52% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Den Bosch's matches and 39% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 39% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Den Bosch 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Den Bosch 0-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 0.96 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.12 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Den Bosch fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.75 / defence 0.64, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 31% | Draw 30% | FC Eindhoven 39%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 70%, FC Eindhoven 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.