Jong Utrecht 1-0 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong Utrecht face Helmond Sport.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Helmond Sport make the trip to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch to face Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Jong Utrecht have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Jong Utrecht have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Helmond Sport (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Helmond Sport away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 1.00 for Helmond Sport. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Jong Utrecht, 4 for Helmond Sport and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2025, ended Jong Utrecht 1–2 Helmond Sport — a Helmond Sport win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 32 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Helmond Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Utrecht 60% and Helmond Sport 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 59% | Helmond Sport 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 2.40 xG and Helmond Sport 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 1.115 / defence 1.232 | Helmond Sport attack 0.684 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.476. Helmond Sport's defence rating of 1.326 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jong Utrecht's projected output up. Helmond Sport's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.24. Jong Utrecht's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Helmond Sport's projected output up. Data: built from Jong Utrecht's last 68 games and Helmond Sport's last 68.
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 62% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 18%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 1.60 | Draw 5.12 | Helmond Sport 5.55. The model has a clear lean to Jong Utrecht (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.40 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Utrecht at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jong Utrecht's last 10 home games and Helmond Sport's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong Utrecht 90% (last 10 home games) | Helmond Sport 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 31 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 62% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Jong Utrecht 2.40 / Helmond Sport 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 1.115 / def 1.232 | Helmond Sport attack 0.684 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Helmond Sport xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport FAQs
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 0 Helmond Sport.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 31) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 62% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (1.11) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Helmond Sport's attack (0.68x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Jong Utrecht's last 68 games and Helmond Sport's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
62%
1.60
20%
5.12
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.64
1.24
Helmond Sport xG
1.60
62%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
9%
10.99
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
2%
61.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.24 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 12W 20D 36L from 68 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Helmond Sport, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 31L across 68 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 1.16 for Helmond Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 8W 11D 14L from their last 33 home games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helmond Sport's away record stands at 7W 6D 20L across their last 33 away games, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.99 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.32 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Helmond Sport in 63%.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
Helmond Sport
Current Season
Jong Utrecht (Home) vs Helmond Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
Helmond Sport
Current Season
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport Form FAQs
What form are Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 20D 36L in their last 68 games (0.82 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 21W 16D 31L in their last 68 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Helmond Sport away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.06 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helmond Sport won Helmond Sport 4-0 Jong Utrecht on 6 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong Utrecht
1
Draws
4
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong Utrecht have won 5, Helmond Sport have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: Jong Utrecht 1-0 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport?
Jong Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 67%, Helmond Sport 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Jong Utrecht and 64% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 27% of games; Helmond Sport in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jong Utrecht's games and 58% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 64% of Helmond Sport's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 73% of Helmond Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong Utrecht edge out Helmond Sport 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Helmond Sport 1-0 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 2.40 xG and Helmond Sport 1.24 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jong Utrecht fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Helmond Sport landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 1.11 / defence 1.23 against Helmond Sport attack 0.68 / defence 1.33, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 62% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 18%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 59%, Helmond Sport 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.82 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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