Jong Utrecht 4-2 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 38%, yet in-form FC OSS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 32 as Jong Utrecht welcome FC OSS to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch. Kick-off is set for Monday 10 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC OSS — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC OSS's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC OSS — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jong Utrecht, 2 for FC OSS and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2022, ended 0–3 with FC OSS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong Utrecht trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
FC OSS trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 49% versus FC OSS 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 52% | FC OSS 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.18 xG and FC OSS 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.672 / defence 1.036 | FC OSS attack 0.797 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.758 / away 1.321. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.672 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Jong Utrecht games / 69 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 38% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | FC OSS 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC OSS (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 30% | FC OSS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 38% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.18 / FC OSS 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.672 / def 1.036 | FC OSS attack 0.797 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.758 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.09
FC OSS xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Jong Utrecht 4 - 2 FC OSS.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS part of?
Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 38% chance of winning, FC OSS a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Jong Utrecht and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
Record (3 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 2W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. FC OSS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 0.67x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.50
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.27
1.09
FC OSS xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
10%
9.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.09 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 16W 10D 43L from 69 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 37L across 69 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 0.84 PPG, FC OSS on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 8W 3D 23L from 34 games — 0.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 9W 5D 20L across 34 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.22 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
FC OSS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 16W 10D 43L in their last 69 games (0.84 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 20W 12D 37L in their last 69 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or FC OSS away?
FC OSS's away record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.79 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2022, when FC OSS won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
5
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, FC OSS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when FC OSS 3-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 32%, FC OSS 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Jong Utrecht) and 62% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 56% of games; FC OSS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 53% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 62% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and FC OSS tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat FC OSS 4-2 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.18 xG and FC OSS 1.09 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC OSS outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.67 / defence 1.04 against FC OSS attack 0.80 / defence 1.00, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 38% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 34%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 52%, FC OSS 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.84 PPG, FC OSS 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.