Almere City FC 2-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Almere City FC host Jong AZ at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Almere City FC at Yanmar Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Almere City FC have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Jong AZ have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Almere City FC.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2022, ended 2–3 with Jong AZ winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Jong AZ have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 52% versus Jong AZ 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 58% | Jong AZ 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.70 xG and Jong AZ 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.877 / defence 0.960 | Jong AZ attack 0.892 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.312. Data: 69 Almere City FC games / 69 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 51% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 25%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Jong AZ 4.00. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Jong AZ lead the H2H ledger, but Almere City FC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 70% | Jong AZ 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 51% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Almere City FC 1.70 / Jong AZ 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.877 / def 0.960 | Jong AZ attack 0.892 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Jong AZ xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Jong AZ kick off?
Almere City FC vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Almere City FC 2 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is Almere City FC vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Jong AZ part of?
Almere City FC vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 51% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Almere City FC and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong AZ?
Record (3 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and Jong AZ in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.16
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.82
1.12
Jong AZ xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
5%
21.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.12 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC come into this having played 69 games, going 28W 13D 28L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.20 PPG from 69 outings (23W 14D 32L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 1.41 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Almere City FC's home form reads 13W 7D 14L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 0.94 points per game from 34 outings (9W 5D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.28 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 28W 13D 28L in their last 69 games (1.41 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 23W 14D 32L in their last 69 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Jong AZ away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.35 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Jong AZ won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Almere City FC
0
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong AZ?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 2, Jong AZ have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Jong AZ 3-4 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 50%, Jong AZ 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Almere City FC) and 53% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Jong AZ in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 44% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Almere City FC's matches and 53% of Jong AZ's.
Do Almere City FC and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Almere City FC edge out Jong AZ 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Jong AZ 2-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.70 xG and Jong AZ 1.12 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.96 against Jong AZ attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 51% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 25%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 58%, Jong AZ 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong AZ's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.41 PPG, Jong AZ 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.