Jong Utrecht 0-3 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host Den Bosch at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie (matchday 5). Kick-off is Monday 16 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Jong Utrecht have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Den Bosch have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Den Bosch away from home: 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Den Bosch are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Jong Utrecht, 2 for Den Bosch and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2024, ended Jong Utrecht 0–2 Den Bosch — a Den Bosch win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 51% versus Den Bosch 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 49% | Den Bosch 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.15 xG and Den Bosch 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.738 / defence 1.114 | Den Bosch attack 0.925 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.340. Jong Utrecht's attack rating of 0.738 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Data: built from Jong Utrecht's last 43 games and Den Bosch's last 43.
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 29% | Draw 32% | Den Bosch 39%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 3.49 | Draw 3.14 | Den Bosch 2.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Jong Utrecht 50% (last 10 home games) | Den Bosch 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 5 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 16 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 29% | Draw 32% | Den Bosch 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Jong Utrecht 1.15 / Den Bosch 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.738 / def 1.114 | Den Bosch attack 0.925 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Den Bosch xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch FAQs
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 16 September 2024 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 3 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 5) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 29% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong Utrecht's last 43 games and Den Bosch's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
29%
3.49
32%
3.14
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.54
1.38
Den Bosch xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
7%
13.87
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.38 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.65 PPG on a 5W 13D 25L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Den Bosch's form line: 11W 10D 22L from 43 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 0.65 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 0.90 PPG from their last 21 home games (4W 7D 10L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 6W 3D 12L from their last 21 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.14 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
Jong Utrecht (Home) vs Den Bosch (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch Form FAQs
What form are Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 13D 25L in their last 43 games (0.65 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 11W 10D 22L in their last 43 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Den Bosch away?
Den Bosch's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.90 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Jan 2023, when Jong Utrecht won Den Bosch 1-4 Jong Utrecht.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
4
Draws
4
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong Utrecht have won 2, Den Bosch have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Den Bosch 1-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 43%, Den Bosch 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Jong Utrecht) and 48% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 43% of games; Den Bosch in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 38% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 48% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 62% of Den Bosch's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Den Bosch run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Jong Utrecht 0-3 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.15 xG and Den Bosch 1.38 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Jong Utrecht fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Den Bosch outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.74 / defence 1.11 against Den Bosch attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 29% | Draw 32% | Den Bosch 39%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 49%, Den Bosch 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Den Bosch's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.65 PPG, Den Bosch 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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