FC Volendam 2-0 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 41%, yet in-form Dordrecht provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Volendam vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 5 as FC Volendam welcome Dordrecht to Kras Stadion. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 17 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Volendam have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam at Kras Stadion this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Dordrecht's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of FC Volendam's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Volendam, 1 for Dordrecht and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2022, ended 2–3 with Dordrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Volendam trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dordrecht trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 64% and Dordrecht 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 69% | Dordrecht 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.49 xG and Dordrecht 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.031 / defence 0.965 | Dordrecht attack 0.953 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.349. Data: 5 FC Volendam games / 43 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 41% | Draw 30% | Dordrecht 29%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Dordrecht 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dordrecht (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 50% | Dordrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 41% | Draw 30% | Dordrecht 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Volendam 1.49 / Dordrecht 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.031 / def 0.965 | Dordrecht attack 0.953 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Dordrecht xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Dordrecht kick off?
FC Volendam vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 17 September 2024 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Dordrecht?
FC Volendam 2 - 0 Dordrecht.
Where is FC Volendam vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Dordrecht part of?
FC Volendam vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 41% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Volendam and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Dordrecht?
Record (2 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and Dordrecht in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.03x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
41%
2.46
30%
3.33
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.73
1.24
Dordrecht xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
7%
15.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.24 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 5W 8D 26L from 39 games, a 0.59 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 6L across 39 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dordrecht by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 4W 2D 13L from 19 games — 0.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 6W 9D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.49 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.79 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 5W 8D 26L in their last 39 games (0.59 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 18W 15D 6L in their last 39 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 0.74 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.42 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and Dordrecht runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2025, when Dordrecht won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
0
Draws
2
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Dordrecht?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Dordrecht have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Dordrecht 4-1 FC Volendam.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 47%, Dordrecht 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for FC Volendam and 68% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of FC Volendam's games and 79% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC Volendam's matches and 68% of Dordrecht's.
Do FC Volendam and Dordrecht tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Dordrecht 2-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.49 xG and Dordrecht 1.24 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dordrecht landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Dordrecht attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 41% | Draw 30% | Dordrecht 29%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 69%, Dordrecht 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Dordrecht's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.59. Form was overturned, with FC Volendam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.37 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.