Den Bosch 2-0 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 6 as Den Bosch welcome ADO Den Haag to Stadion De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Den Bosch have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stadion De Vliert — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion De Vliert this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.60. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
ADO Den Haag's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Den Bosch carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, ADO Den Haag have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Den Bosch.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 0–3 with ADO Den Haag winning.
It is worth noting that ADO Den Haag have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
ADO Den Haag trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 50% and ADO Den Haag 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 57% | ADO Den Haag 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.74 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.221 / defence 1.006 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.061 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.300. Data: 42 Den Bosch games / 42 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 43% | Draw 29% | ADO Den Haag 28%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | ADO Den Haag 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
ADO Den Haag lead the H2H ledger, but Den Bosch carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 50% | ADO Den Haag 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 43% | Draw 29% | ADO Den Haag 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG Den Bosch 1.74 / ADO Den Haag 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.221 / def 1.006 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.061 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.39
ADO Den Haag xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Den Bosch 2 - 0 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 43% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag?
Record (6 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 1 | ADO Den Haag 4W.
What form are Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 1.22x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.43
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.12
1.39
ADO Den Haag xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
5%
20.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.39 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 10W 10D 22L from 42 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
ADO Den Haag, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 11L across 42 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours ADO Den Haag by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 3W 7D 10L from 20 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
ADO Den Haag's away record stands at 9W 6D 5L across 20 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.83 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag in 74%.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 10W 10D 22L in their last 42 games (0.95 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 17W 14D 11L in their last 42 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 0.80 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2024, when ADO Den Haag won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
1
Draws
7
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, ADO Den Haag have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-3 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Den Bosch at 65%, ADO Den Haag at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Den Bosch and 70% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Den Bosch's games and 75% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Den Bosch's matches and 70% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over ADO Den Haag.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat ADO Den Haag 2-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.74 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.39 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. ADO Den Haag landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.22 / defence 1.01 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 43% | Draw 29% | ADO Den Haag 28%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 57%, ADO Den Haag 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Den Bosch winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.