Helmond Sport 1-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helmond Sport at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees FC OSS travel to GS Staalwerken Stadion to take on Helmond Sport. The game is scheduled for Monday 16 September 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Helmond Sport have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helmond Sport have posted 6W 3D 1L at GS Staalwerken Stadion — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC OSS — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Helmond Sport are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
FC OSS have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 6 encounters against Helmond Sport's 0 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with FC OSS winning.
It is worth noting that FC OSS have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Helmond Sport trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
FC OSS trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 58% versus FC OSS 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 56% | FC OSS 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.97 xG and FC OSS 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 1.111 / defence 0.832 | FC OSS attack 0.684 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.340. Data: 43 Helmond Sport games / 43 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 64% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 12%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 1.56 | Draw 4.00 | FC OSS 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Helmond Sport (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
FC OSS lead the H2H ledger, but Helmond Sport carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Helmond Sport as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Helmond Sport 60% | FC OSS 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 16 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 64% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Helmond Sport 1.97 / FC OSS 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 1.111 / def 0.832 | FC OSS attack 0.684 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
0.76
FC OSS xG
48%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs FC OSS kick off?
Helmond Sport vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 16 September 2024 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Helmond Sport 1 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Helmond Sport vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs FC OSS part of?
Helmond Sport vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 64% chance of winning, FC OSS a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Helmond Sport and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC OSS?
Record (6 meetings): Helmond Sport 0W | Draws 3 | FC OSS 3W.
What form are Helmond Sport and FC OSS in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (1.11) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
64%
1.57
25%
4.05
12%
8.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.74
0.76
FC OSS xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
8.67
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
14%
7.20
Win to Nil
30%
3.36
2%
62.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 9.8 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 0.76 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport come into this having played 43 games, going 17W 11D 15L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Helmond Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 0.95 PPG from 43 outings (12W 5D 26L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Helmond Sport carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Helmond Sport's home form reads 11W 6D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Helmond Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.57 points per game from 21 outings (3W 3D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helmond Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.84 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 12W 5D 26L in their last 43 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or FC OSS away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.86 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or FC OSS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FC OSS in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2025, when Helmond Sport won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
5
Draws
3
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 2, FC OSS have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Helmond Sport 1-1 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 67%, FC OSS 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Helmond Sport) and 48% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 33% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helmond Sport vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Helmond Sport's recent games and 48% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helmond Sport and FC OSS tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Helmond Sport edge out FC OSS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat FC OSS 1-0 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.97 xG and FC OSS 0.76 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Helmond Sport fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 1.11 / defence 0.83 against FC OSS attack 0.68 / defence 1.19, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 64% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 12%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 56%, FC OSS 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC OSS's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Helmond Sport arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.