Jong PSV U21 1-0 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong PSV U21 face VVV Venlo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host VVV Venlo at De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie (matchday 35). Kick-off is Monday 6 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Jong PSV U21 have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Jong PSV U21 at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, VVV Venlo stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Jong PSV U21) versus 1.00 (VVV Venlo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and VVV Venlo's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Jong PSV U21, 3 for VVV Venlo and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2025, ended Jong PSV U21 2–0 VVV Venlo — a Jong PSV U21 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 67% versus VVV Venlo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 72% | VVV Venlo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.69 xG and VVV Venlo 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.017 / defence 1.035 | VVV Venlo attack 0.921 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.495. Data: built from Jong PSV U21's last 72 games and VVV Venlo's last 72.
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 44% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 33%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.28 | Draw 4.24 | VVV Venlo 3.07. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.69 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and VVV Venlo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong PSV U21 70% (last 10 home games) | VVV Venlo 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 35 | Venue: De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 44% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Jong PSV U21 1.69 / VVV Venlo 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.017 / def 1.035 | VVV Venlo attack 0.921 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.495 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.43
VVV Venlo xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo FAQs
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 0 VVV Venlo.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 35) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 44% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong PSV U21's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong PSV U21's last 72 games and VVV Venlo's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
44%
2.28
24%
4.24
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.11
1.43
VVV Venlo xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
6%
16.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.43 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong PSV U21 come into this having played 72 games, going 23W 11D 38L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, VVV Venlo sit at 1.14 PPG from 72 outings (23W 13D 36L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.11 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jong PSV U21's home form reads 12W 6D 18L across their last 36 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, VVV Venlo have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 36 away games (11W 7D 18L).
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 2.01 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.22 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
VVV Venlo
Current Season
Jong PSV U21 (Home) vs VVV Venlo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
VVV Venlo
Current Season
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo Form FAQs
What form are Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 23W 11D 38L in their last 72 games (1.11 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 23W 13D 36L in their last 72 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or VVV Venlo away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.17 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Jan 2022, when Jong PSV U21 won VVV Venlo 1-4 Jong PSV U21.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong PSV U21
3
Draws
3
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong PSV U21 have won 4, VVV Venlo have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: VVV Venlo 1-1 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 47% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong PSV U21 at 75%, VVV Venlo at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Jong PSV U21 and 72% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Jong PSV U21's games and 56% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 72% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Jong PSV U21's recent matches and 81% of VVV Venlo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong PSV U21 edge out VVV Venlo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat VVV Venlo 1-0 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.69 xG and VVV Venlo 1.43 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VVV Venlo landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against VVV Venlo attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 44% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 33%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 72%, VVV Venlo 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.11 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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