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Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong Ajax.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat Jong Ajax 0-2 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 2.29 xG and Almere City FC 1.98 xG, a combined 4.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong Ajax fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.17 / defence 1.07 against Almere City FC attack 1.27 / defence 1.26, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 46% | Draw 20% | Almere City FC 34%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 54%, Almere City FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Ajax's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Almere City FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 0.95 PPG, Almere City FC 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights