FC OSS 3-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates FC OSS at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht encounter.

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Match Analysis

FC OSS host Jong Utrecht at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 35). Kick-off is Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:45 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, FC OSS stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, FC OSS have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Jong Utrecht — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC OSS 0.60 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of FC OSS's games and 60% of Jong Utrecht's (from FC OSS's last 10 home games and Jong Utrecht's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of FC OSS: 4 wins from 8 H2H matches against 1 for Jong Utrecht, with 3 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2025, ended FC OSS 0–0 Jong Utrecht — a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both FC OSS and goals — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 2.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Profile

FC OSS in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 32 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 52% versus Jong Utrecht 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 49% | Jong Utrecht 58%). Note also that Jong Utrecht surrender HT leads in 56% of cases while FC OSS recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.33 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.923 / defence 1.150 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.717 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.528. Jong Utrecht's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. Data: built from FC OSS's last 72 games and Jong Utrecht's last 71.

Result probabilities: FC OSS 38% | Draw 26% | Jong Utrecht 35%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.61 | Draw 3.78 | Jong Utrecht 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, FC OSS are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (FC OSS 4 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (FC OSS's last 10 home games and Jong Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches point the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC OSS 70% (last 10 home games) | Jong Utrecht 60% (last 10 away games).

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