Emmen 0-0 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 61% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Jong Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Emmen welcome Jong Ajax to De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie (matchday 24). Kick-off is Monday 23 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Emmen have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Emmen's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Emmen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jong Ajax stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Jong Ajax have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Emmen) versus 1.30 (Jong Ajax). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Emmen's last 10 home games and Jong Ajax's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Emmen: 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Jong Ajax, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2025, ended Emmen 1–0 Jong Ajax — a Emmen win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Emmen and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (last 63 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Jong Ajax trading profile (last 63 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 56% versus Jong Ajax 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 62% | Jong Ajax 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 2.44 xG and Jong Ajax 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.242 / defence 1.124 | Jong Ajax attack 0.828 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.470. Data: built from Emmen's last 63 games and Jong Ajax's last 65.
Result probabilities: Emmen 61% | Draw 20% | Jong Ajax 20%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.65 | Draw 5.09 | Jong Ajax 5.04. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.44 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Emmen 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.81 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Emmen's last 10 home games and Jong Ajax's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Emmen 80% (last 10 home games) | Jong Ajax 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 24 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Monday 23 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 61% | Draw 20% | Jong Ajax 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Emmen 2.44 / Jong Ajax 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.242 / def 1.124 | Jong Ajax attack 0.828 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Emmen (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Jong Ajax xG
68%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Emmen vs Jong Ajax FAQs
What time does Emmen vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Emmen vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 23 February 2026 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Emmen 0 - 0 Jong Ajax.
Where is Emmen vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Jong Ajax part of?
Emmen vs Jong Ajax is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 61% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Emmen and Jong Ajax will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Emmen vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Emmen's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.44. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Emmen's last 63 games and Jong Ajax's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
61%
1.65
20%
5.09
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.81
1.37
Jong Ajax xG
1.65
61%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
9%
11.45
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
2%
57.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Emmen vs Jong Ajax Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Emmen and 1.37 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Emmen come into this having played 63 games, going 25W 10D 28L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 0.89 PPG from 63 outings (14W 14D 35L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Emmen's home form reads 12W 7D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 0.53 points per game from their last 30 away games (4W 4D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.11 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
Emmen (Home) vs Jong Ajax (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Emmen
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Emmen vs Jong Ajax Form FAQs
What form are Emmen and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 25W 10D 28L in their last 63 games (1.35 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 14W 14D 35L in their last 63 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Jong Ajax away?
Emmen's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.43 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 17 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Emmen's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Emmen
2
Draws
1
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Emmen vs Jong Ajax H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong Ajax?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Emmen have won 6, Jong Ajax have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Jong Ajax last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 August 2026: Jong Ajax 4-6 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Jong Ajax?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 67%, Jong Ajax 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Emmen and 63% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Emmen vs Jong Ajax Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Emmen and Jong Ajax matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Emmen's games and 57% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Emmen and Jong Ajax matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Emmen's matches and 63% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Emmen and Jong Ajax matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Emmen's recent matches and 73% of Jong Ajax's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Emmen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 24, as Emmen and Jong Ajax drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 2.44 xG and Jong Ajax 1.37 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Emmen fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Jong Ajax landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.24 / defence 1.12 against Jong Ajax attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 63/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 61% | Draw 20% | Jong Ajax 20%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 62%, Jong Ajax 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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