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Poisson rates Roda at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs FC OSS encounter.

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Match Analysis

Roda host FC OSS at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Roda — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 3W 4D 3L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC OSS have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Roda at 1.10 PPG versus FC OSS's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Roda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC OSS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Roda have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while FC OSS have managed just 1 wins.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Roda winning.

The historical record gives Roda a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Roda in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

FC OSS in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 60% versus FC OSS 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 58% | FC OSS 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.51 xG and FC OSS 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.003 / defence 0.987 | FC OSS attack 0.775 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.736 / away 1.540. Data: 60 Roda games / 60 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Roda 44% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 29%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | FC OSS 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | FC OSS 60% BTTS from recent games.

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