De Graafschap 2-4 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and Waalwijk meet at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at De Vijverberg this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Waalwijk have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. De Graafschap's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Waalwijk's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Waalwijk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for De Graafschap, 0 for Waalwijk and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 4–1 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 64% and Waalwijk 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 61% | Waalwijk 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.79 xG and Waalwijk 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.086 / defence 1.028 | Waalwijk attack 0.878 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.736 / away 1.540. Data: 60 De Graafschap games / 22 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 46% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 30%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 3.33. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | Waalwijk 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 46% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG De Graafschap 1.79 / Waalwijk 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.086 / def 1.028 | Waalwijk attack 0.878 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.736 / away 1.540 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Waalwijk xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Waalwijk kick off?
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 January 2026 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
De Graafschap 2 - 4 Waalwijk.
Where is De Graafschap vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Waalwijk part of?
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 46% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both De Graafschap and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Waalwijk?
Record (1 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are De Graafschap and Waalwijk in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.09) and Waalwijk's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.88x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
46%
2.15
24%
4.17
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.18
1.39
Waalwijk xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
5%
20.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.39 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 27W 12D 17L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk's form line: 14W 13D 29L from 56 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 2.12 PPG from 26 outings (17W 4D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 5W 7D 14L from 26 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.39 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 27W 12D 17L in their last 56 games (1.66 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 14W 13D 29L in their last 56 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Waalwijk away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.12 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
0
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Waalwijk?
From 2 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 1, Waalwijk have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when De Graafschap 2-4 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for De Graafschap, 69% for Waalwijk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for De Graafschap and 65% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Waalwijk in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of De Graafschap's games and 69% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of De Graafschap's matches and 65% of Waalwijk's.
Do De Graafschap and Waalwijk tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat De Graafschap 2-4 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.79 xG and Waalwijk 1.39 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 1.39 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.09 / defence 1.03 against Waalwijk attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 46% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 30%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Waalwijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 61%, Waalwijk 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (56 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (56 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.