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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Waalwijk encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

De Graafschap and Waalwijk meet at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at De Vijverberg this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Waalwijk have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Waalwijk away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. De Graafschap's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Waalwijk's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Waalwijk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for De Graafschap, 0 for Waalwijk and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 4–1 with De Graafschap winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 64% and Waalwijk 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 61% | Waalwijk 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.79 xG and Waalwijk 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.086 / defence 1.028 | Waalwijk attack 0.878 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.736 / away 1.540. Data: 60 De Graafschap games / 22 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: De Graafschap 46% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 30%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 3.33. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | Waalwijk 60% BTTS from recent games.

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