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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out Dordrecht 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat Dordrecht 1-2 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.06 xG and Willem II 1.63 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.84 / defence 0.96 against Willem II attack 1.17 / defence 0.77, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 25% | Draw 25% | Willem II 51%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 59%, Willem II 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Willem II's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.53 PPG, Willem II 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights