Dordrecht 1-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Willem II (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Dordrecht face Willem II.

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Analysis

Willem II make the trip to M-Scores Stadion to face Dordrecht in Eerste Divisie (matchday 38). The match kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Form

Dordrecht (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Dordrecht have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dordrecht are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Willem II's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Willem II have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Willem II are 1.50 PPG clear of Dordrecht over their recent games (2.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head sample leans to Willem II, who have 4 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended Dordrecht 0–2 Willem II — a Willem II win.

Willem II have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading

Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 55% versus Willem II 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 59% | Willem II 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.06 xG and Willem II 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.838 / defence 0.960 | Willem II attack 1.169 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.448. Willem II bring a tight defence (rating 0.771, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Dordrecht's projected output down. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 75 games and Willem II's last 37.

Result probabilities: Dordrecht 25% | Draw 25% | Willem II 51%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 4.04 | Draw 4.05 | Willem II 1.98. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Dordrecht's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 50% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 50% (last 10 away games).

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