De Graafschap 1-2 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 14:45 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap at De Vijverberg this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for De Graafschap, 1.10 for NAC Breda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, NAC Breda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — De Graafschap lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 75% and NAC Breda 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 72% | NAC Breda 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.27 xG and NAC Breda 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.997 / defence 1.343 | NAC Breda attack 1.056 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.951 / away 1.583. Data: 44 De Graafschap games / 6 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 41% | Draw 19% | NAC Breda 40%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.44 | Draw 5.26 | NAC Breda 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 19% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 80% | Total xG 4.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 80% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 40% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 83% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 80% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | NAC Breda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 40% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 41% | Draw 19% | NAC Breda 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 80% | xG De Graafschap 2.27 / NAC Breda 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.997 / def 1.343 | NAC Breda attack 1.056 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.951 / away 1.583 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
2.25
NAC Breda xG
80%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs NAC Breda kick off?
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda kicked off at 14:45 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
De Graafschap 1 - 2 NAC Breda.
Where is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda part of?
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 41% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 40% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 80% probability that both De Graafschap and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and NAC Breda?
Record (6 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 2 | NAC Breda 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and NAC Breda in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.00x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (1.06x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 2.25.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (6.3%), 1-1 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
41%
2.46
19%
5.16
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
6.3%
Away win
2 – 1
6.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
4.51
2.25
NAC Breda xG
2.46
41%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
47%
Over 4.5
2.13
53%
Under 4.5
1.89
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
80%
BTTS Yes
1.25
20%
BTTS No
5.04
Clean Sheet
11%
9.44
10%
9.65
Win to Nil
4%
23.19
4%
24.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for De Graafschap and 2.25 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 4.51.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap come into this having played 40 games, going 17W 10D 13L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 0.90 PPG from 40 outings (8W 12D 20L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
De Graafschap's home form reads 9W 3D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 0.72 points per game from 18 outings (2W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.15 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 17W 10D 13L in their last 40 games (1.52 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 8W 12D 20L in their last 40 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or NAC Breda away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.67 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
De Graafschap
2
Draws
3
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and NAC Breda?
From 7 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 2, NAC Breda have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when De Graafschap 1-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for De Graafschap, 61% for NAC Breda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for De Graafschap and 67% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of De Graafschap's games and 61% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of De Graafschap's matches and 67% of NAC Breda's.
Do De Graafschap and NAC Breda tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NAC Breda defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat De Graafschap 1-2 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.27 xG and NAC Breda 2.25 xG, a combined 4.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.00 / defence 1.34 against NAC Breda attack 1.06 / defence 1.17, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 41% | Draw 19% | NAC Breda 40%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 40%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 80% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 72%, NAC Breda 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (40 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (40 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with NAC Breda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.