Almere City FC 1-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 7 as Almere City FC welcome Heracles to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Heracles — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Heracles have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heracles's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Almere City FC at 1.70 PPG versus Heracles's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Almere City FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Heracles in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Almere City FC, 2 for Heracles and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 0–2 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Heracles trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 65% and Heracles 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 70% | Heracles 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.64 xG and Heracles 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.882 / defence 0.908 | Heracles attack 1.565 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.899 / away 1.685. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.565 — the away xG of 2.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Almere City FC games / 6 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 26% | Draw 19% | Heracles 55%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 3.85 | Draw 5.26 | Heracles 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 2.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 26% | Draw 19% | Heracles 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 73% | xG Almere City FC 1.64 / Heracles 2.40 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.882 / def 0.908 | Heracles attack 1.565 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.899 / away 1.685 • Poisson stance: Heracles (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
2.40
Heracles xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Heracles kick off?
Almere City FC vs Heracles kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Almere City FC 1 - 0 Heracles.
Where is Almere City FC vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Heracles part of?
Almere City FC vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 26% chance of winning, Heracles a 55% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Almere City FC and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Heracles?
Record (6 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 3 | Heracles 2W.
What form are Almere City FC and Heracles in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Heracles (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.88x the league average against Heracles's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 2.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
26%
3.85
19%
5.17
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
4.03
2.40
Heracles xG
3.85
26%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.73
Clean Sheet
9%
10.98
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
2%
42.26
11%
9.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Almere City FC and 2.40 for Heracles, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 22W 5D 13L from 40 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 11W 4D 25L across 40 games — 0.92 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 11W 2D 6L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 4W 1D 14L across 19 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.48 scored and 2.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Heracles in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 22W 5D 13L in their last 40 games (1.78 PPG), while Heracles have gone 11W 4D 25L in their last 40 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Heracles away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.84 PPG; Heracles away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2023, when Heracles won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Almere City FC
3
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Heracles?
From 7 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 2, Heracles have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Almere City FC 1-0 Heracles.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 58%, Heracles 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Almere City FC and 79% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Almere City FC's games and 58% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Almere City FC's matches and 79% of Heracles's.
Do Almere City FC and Heracles tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Heracles in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat Heracles 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Heracles 1-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.64 xG and Heracles 2.40 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Heracles landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Heracles attack 1.56 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 26% | Draw 19% | Heracles 55%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 70%, Heracles 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Heracles's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.