Poisson rates De Graafschap at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. De Graafschap haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
De Graafschap at De Vijverberg this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Den Bosch (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Den Bosch haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.10 for Den Bosch. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Den Bosch in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours De Graafschap, who have won 5 of the last 10 meetings against Den Bosch — a 3D 2W return for the visitors.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives De Graafschap a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
League Table
De Graafschap hold the table advantage, sitting 4th with 63 points — 5 positions and 12 points clear of Den Bosch in 9th.
On home turf, De Graafschap's Eerste Divisie record reads 10W 3D 6L this term. Den Bosch have gone 6W 3D 10L on their travels. De Graafschap: Promotion Playoffs. Den Bosch: Promotion Playoffs.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 72% and Den Bosch 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 68% | Den Bosch 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.14 xG and Den Bosch 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.136 / defence 0.989 | Den Bosch attack 1.070 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.422. Data: 38 De Graafschap games / 38 Den Bosch games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 52% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 27%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | Den Bosch 3.70. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Den Bosch 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Sep 2026, 12:30 UTC • Manager edge: Den Bosch led by P. Beekmans • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 5W | Draws 3 | Den Bosch 2W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: De Graafschap 17 – 8 Den Bosch • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 60% | Win rates: De Graafschap 50% / Draw 30% / Den Bosch 20% • Historical edge: De Graafschap dominant — 5W from 10 meetings (50% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — De Graafschap favoured. H2H win rate 50%, Poisson win probability 52% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (60% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.65 (71% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 69% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D • Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L • De Graafschap home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Den Bosch away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | CS 0 • Form edge: minimal separation (De Graafschap 1.50 PPG vs Den Bosch 1.10 PPG) • xG vs form (De Graafschap): Poisson xG of 2.14 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Den Bosch): Poisson xG of 1.50 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.50 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.8 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.65 (71% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates De Graafschap 7/10, Den Bosch 8/10; Poisson BTTS probability 69% — all signals aligned
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 52% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG De Graafschap 2.14 / Den Bosch 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.136 / def 0.989 | Den Bosch attack 1.070 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Den Bosch xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Den Bosch kick off?
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 27 September 2026 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch part of?
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 52% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both De Graafschap and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
• Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 5W | Draws 3 | Den Bosch 2W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: De Graafschap 17 – 8 Den Bosch • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 60% | Win rates: De Graafschap 50% / Draw 30% / Den Bosch 20% • Historical edge: De Graafschap dominant — 5W from 10 meetings (50% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — De Graafschap favoured. H2H win rate 50%, Poisson win probability 52% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (60% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.65 (71% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 69% — no strong aligned signal
What form are De Graafschap and Den Bosch in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D • Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L • De Graafschap home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Den Bosch away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | CS 0 • Form edge: minimal separation (De Graafschap 1.50 PPG vs Den Bosch 1.10 PPG) • xG vs form (De Graafschap): Poisson xG of 2.14 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Den Bosch): Poisson xG of 1.50 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.50 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.8 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.65 (71% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates De Graafschap 7/10, Den Bosch 8/10; Poisson BTTS probability 69% — all signals aligned
What do the betting odds say about De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture