De Graafschap 5-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 45%, yet the head-to-head data favours De Graafschap — this De Graafschap vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Jong AZ travel to De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, De Graafschap stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, De Graafschap have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Jong AZ have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Jong AZ have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.80 PPG, Jong AZ 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from De Graafschap's last 10 home games and Jong AZ's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
De Graafschap hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 1 for Jong AZ and 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2025, ended De Graafschap 3–1 Jong AZ — a De Graafschap win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both De Graafschap and goals — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 2.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 32 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 65% and Jong AZ 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 62% | Jong AZ 69%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: De Graafschap surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Jong AZ have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.92 xG and Jong AZ 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.107 / defence 1.097 | Jong AZ attack 1.311 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.528. Jong AZ have an above-average attack rating of 1.311, which lifts their away xG to 2.20. Data: built from De Graafschap's last 72 games and Jong AZ's last 72.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 35% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 45%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.90 | Draw 4.95 | Jong AZ 2.21. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS Yes probability 76% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% — both xG figures (1.92 / 2.20) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (De Graafschap's last 10 home games and Jong AZ's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: De Graafschap 70% (last 10 home games) | Jong AZ 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 35 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 35% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% (Under 22%) | BTTS Yes 76% (No 24%) | xG De Graafschap 1.92 / Jong AZ 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.107 / def 1.097 | Jong AZ attack 1.311 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
2.20
Jong AZ xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ De Graafschap vs Jong AZ FAQs
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong AZ kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ kicked off at 16:45 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
De Graafschap 5 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 35) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 35% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 45% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong AZ will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will De Graafschap vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.11x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 2.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from De Graafschap's last 72 games and Jong AZ's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
35%
2.90
20%
4.95
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
4.11
2.20
Jong AZ xG
2.90
35%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.13
Clean Sheet
11%
9.01
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
4%
26.10
7%
14.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ De Graafschap vs Jong AZ Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for De Graafschap and 2.20 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 4.11.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 72 games, going 34W 17D 21L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.24 PPG from 72 outings (25W 14D 33L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 21W 6D 9L across their last 36 home games, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 36 away games (16W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.78 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 67%.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
De Graafschap (Home) vs Jong AZ (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
De Graafschap
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ De Graafschap vs Jong AZ Form FAQs
What form are De Graafschap and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 34W 17D 21L in their last 72 games (1.65 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 25W 14D 33L in their last 72 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong AZ away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.92 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 17 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Apr 2026, when De Graafschap won De Graafschap 5-0 Jong AZ.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
De Graafschap
2
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ De Graafschap vs Jong AZ H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, De Graafschap have won 6, Jong AZ have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong AZ last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 August 2026: De Graafschap 2-5 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — De Graafschap at 64%, Jong AZ at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for De Graafschap and 69% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ De Graafschap vs Jong AZ Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in De Graafschap and Jong AZ matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of De Graafschap's games and 67% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are De Graafschap and Jong AZ matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of De Graafschap's matches and 69% of Jong AZ's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong AZ matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 83% of Jong AZ's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong AZ 5-0 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.92 xG and Jong AZ 2.20 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.11 / defence 1.10 against Jong AZ attack 1.31 / defence 1.11, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 35% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 45%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 62%, Jong AZ 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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