Heracles 2-0 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Heracles at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Polman Stadion plays host to Heracles versus Vitesse in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 26 September 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Heracles have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Heracles have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heracles have posted 3W 2D 5L at Polman Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Polman Stadion this season.
Vitesse's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Vitesse have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Heracles, 1.70 for Vitesse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Heracles lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 3–2 with Heracles winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Heracles — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Vitesse — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 54% versus Vitesse 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 73% | Vitesse 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.91 xG and Vitesse 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.307 / defence 0.983 | Vitesse attack 1.121 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.953 / away 1.573. Heracles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vitesse's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 7 Heracles games / 45 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 43% | Draw 22% | Vitesse 36%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Vitesse 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heracles if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 50% | Vitesse 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Polman Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Sep 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 43% | Draw 22% | Vitesse 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Heracles 1.91 / Vitesse 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.307 / def 0.983 | Vitesse attack 1.121 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.953 / away 1.573 • Poisson stance: Heracles (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Vitesse xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Vitesse kick off?
Heracles vs Vitesse kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 26 September 2026 at Polman Stadion.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Vitesse?
Heracles 2 - 0 Vitesse.
Where is Heracles vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Polman Stadion.
What competition is Heracles vs Vitesse part of?
Heracles vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 43% chance of winning, Vitesse a 36% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Heracles and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Vitesse?
Record (4 meetings): Heracles 1W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 2W.
What form are Heracles and Vitesse in?
Heracles (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Vitesse (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Heracles's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Vitesse's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (1.12x) against Heracles's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
43%
2.34
22%
4.61
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.65
1.73
Vitesse xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
8%
13.23
5%
19.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Heracles and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Heracles and 1.73 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Heracles's recent record stands at 11W 4D 26L from 41 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 12L across 41 games — 1.59 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vitesse by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 7W 3D 10L from 20 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 10W 4D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Heracles are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 2.32 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.76 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Early Season
Vitesse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 11W 4D 26L in their last 41 games (0.90 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 18W 11D 12L in their last 41 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Vitesse away?
Vitesse's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.20 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 26 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Heracles go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Heracles
1
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Vitesse?
From 5 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Vitesse have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2026, when Heracles 2-0 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 55%, Vitesse 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Heracles and 65% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Heracles's games and 55% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Heracles's matches and 65% of Vitesse's.
Do Heracles and Vitesse tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Vitesse 2-0 at Polman Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.91 xG and Vitesse 1.73 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vitesse landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.31 / defence 0.98 against Vitesse attack 1.12 / defence 0.75, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 43% | Draw 22% | Vitesse 36%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 73%, Vitesse 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Vitesse's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitesse arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Heracles winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.