Low Scoring Predictions
Fixtures ranked by lowest predicted expected total goals — Tuesday 28 November 2023
Our prediction model identifies fixtures where both teams have historically weak attack or strong defence. Fixtures at the top of this list have the lowest combined expected goals (xG) — making them the best candidates for Under 2.5 goals and low-scoring correct score markets.
The model shortlists 17 fixtures on Tuesday 28 November 2023. Port Vale vs Derby sits top on 2.48 in the League One. The shortlist runs from 2.48 down to 1.73, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.
League One supplies three of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.
Of the 17 fixtures on this list that have since finished, nine landed the low scoring market — 53%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
League One · England
Serie A · Brazil
League One · England
League Two · England
League Two · England
Championship · England
League One · England
Championship · England
Championship · England
League One · England
League One · England
Serie B · Italy
League Two · England
Championship · England
League Two · England
Serie B · Italy
League One · England
Showing top 17 fixtures by lowest combined expected goals. Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Low Scoring — common questions
What does the Low Scoring market mean?
Low Scoring settles on whether a match is expected to stay tight, typically under 2.5 goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate low scoring probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The combined expected goals shown here is the sum of both teams' expected goals, ranked ascending so the tightest games surface first. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Low Scoring on Tuesday 28 November 2023?
17 fixtures met the criteria, led by Port Vale vs Derby at 2.48 combined expected goals.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with the lowest combined expected goals of the day, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these low scoring predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.