Port Vale 0-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port Vale vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port Vale and Derby meet at Vale Park in League One, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Port Vale (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port Vale at Vale Park this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vale Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Port Vale are significantly better at Vale Park than their overall form suggests.
Derby's overall League One record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Derby arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Port Vale, 1 for Derby and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Derby winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Port Vale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 46% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 49% | Derby 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.02 xG and Derby 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.753 / defence 1.046 | Derby attack 1.220 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.144. Port Vale's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Derby have an above-average attack strength of 1.220 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Port Vale games / 63 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 26% | Draw 27% | Derby 47%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Derby 2.13. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 30% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 26% | Draw 27% | Derby 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Port Vale 1.02 / Derby 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.753 / def 1.046 | Derby attack 1.220 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Derby (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Derby xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Derby kick off?
Port Vale vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Derby?
Port Vale 0 - 1 Derby.
Where is Port Vale vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Derby part of?
Port Vale vs Derby is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 26% chance of winning, Derby a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Port Vale and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Derby?
Record (2 meetings): Port Vale 1W | Draws 0 | Derby 1W.
What form are Port Vale and Derby in?
Port Vale (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Derby (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Port Vale's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Derby's attack (1.22x) against Port Vale's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
26%
3.84
27%
3.73
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.48
1.46
Derby xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
6%
16.54
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.46 for Derby, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Port Vale have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 18W 14D 31L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 30W 16D 17L from 63 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Derby are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Port Vale.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Port Vale have posted 1.27 PPG from 30 outings (11W 5D 14L).
On the road, Derby have gone 12W 8D 10L from 30 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Port Vale are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.54 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Derby in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 18W 14D 31L in their last 63 games (1.08 PPG), while Derby have gone 30W 16D 17L in their last 63 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.27 PPG; Derby away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Derby in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Derby have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derby won 3-0 on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Port Vale
0
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 1, Derby have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Derby 3-0 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 40%, Derby 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Port Vale) and 47% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 30% of games; Derby in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Port Vale's recent matches and 53% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Port Vale's recent games and 47% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Derby tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Derby in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Port Vale 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Port Vale 0-1 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.02 xG and Derby 1.46 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Port Vale fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.75 / defence 1.05 against Derby attack 1.22 / defence 0.98, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 26% | Draw 27% | Derby 47%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 49%, Derby 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.