Port Vale 0-1 Derby – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Derby at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port Vale vs Derby encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Port Vale and Derby meet at Vale Park in League One (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.

Form

Port Vale (all games): 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Port Vale at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Port Vale are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Derby's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Derby's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Derby arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Port Vale, 1 for Derby and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Jan 2023, ended Port Vale 1–2 Derby — a Derby win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Port Vale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 46% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 49% | Derby 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Port Vale surrender their half-time lead 56% of the time, while Derby have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.02 xG and Derby 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.753 / defence 1.046 | Derby attack 1.220 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.144. Port Vale's attack rating of 0.753 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Derby have an above-average attack rating of 1.220, which lifts their away xG to 1.46. Data: built from Port Vale's last 63 games and Derby's last 63.

Result probabilities: Port Vale 26% | Draw 27% | Derby 47%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 3.84 | Draw 3.73 | Derby 2.12. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Port Vale 30% (last 10 home games) | Derby 60% (last 10 away games).

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