Stevenage 2-2 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Peterborough meet at The Lamex Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 5W 4D 1L at The Lamex Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium.
Peterborough (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 League One outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Stevenage, 2.10 for Peterborough — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Peterborough — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 43% versus Peterborough 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 40% | Peterborough 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.11 xG and Peterborough 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.867 / defence 0.897 | Peterborough attack 1.146 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.144. Data: 19 Stevenage games / 64 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 34% | Draw 29% | Peterborough 37%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Peterborough 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 40% | Peterborough 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 34% | Draw 29% | Peterborough 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Stevenage 1.11 / Peterborough 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.867 / def 0.897 | Peterborough attack 1.146 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Peterborough xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Peterborough kick off?
Stevenage vs Peterborough kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Stevenage 2 - 2 Peterborough.
Where is Stevenage vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Peterborough part of?
Stevenage vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 34% chance of winning, Peterborough a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Stevenage and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Peterborough?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stevenage and Peterborough in?
Stevenage (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Peterborough (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Peterborough's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (1.15x) against Stevenage's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 19/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
34%
2.96
29%
3.45
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.28
1.18
Peterborough xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
10%
9.61
12%
8.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.18 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 34W 18D 13L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Peterborough's form line: 34W 9D 22L from 65 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.85 PPG for Stevenage against 1.71 for Peterborough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 2.16 PPG from 32 outings (21W 6D 5L).
On the road, Peterborough have gone 14W 3D 15L from 32 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.72 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Peterborough in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 34W 18D 13L in their last 65 games (1.85 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 34W 9D 22L in their last 65 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Peterborough away?
Stevenage's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.16 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Peterborough in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Stevenage have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stevenage
2
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Peterborough?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Peterborough have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Stevenage 1-0 Peterborough.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 41%, Peterborough 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stevenage) and 53% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Stevenage's recent matches and 53% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Stevenage's recent games and 53% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Peterborough tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage and Peterborough share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage and Peterborough finished level at 2-2 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.11 xG and Peterborough 1.18 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Peterborough outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.87 / defence 0.90 against Peterborough attack 1.15 / defence 0.92, drawn from 19/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 34% | Draw 29% | Peterborough 37%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 40%, Peterborough 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Peterborough's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.85 PPG, Peterborough 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.