Hull City 4-1 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Rotherham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hull City welcome Rotherham to The MKM Stadium in Championship (matchday 18). Kick-off is Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hull City stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Hull City have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rotherham — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rotherham's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Hull City are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Hull City, 0 for Rotherham and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended Hull City 0–0 Rotherham — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Rotherham trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 54% versus Rotherham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 44% | Rotherham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.77 xG and Rotherham 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.848 / defence 0.848 | Rotherham attack 0.557 / defence 1.538. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.217. Rotherham's defence rating of 1.538 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hull City's projected output up. Rotherham's attack rating of 0.557 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.57. Data: built from Hull City's last 63 games and Rotherham's last 63.
Result probabilities: Hull City 66% | Draw 22% | Rotherham 11%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 1.51 | Draw 4.50 | Rotherham 8.76. The model has a clear lean to Hull City (66%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hull City 60% (last 10 home games) | Rotherham 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Rotherham | Competition: Championship, matchday 18 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 66% | Draw 22% | Rotherham 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Hull City 1.77 / Rotherham 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.848 / def 0.848 | Rotherham attack 0.557 / def 1.538 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Hull City (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Rotherham xG
36%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Rotherham FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Rotherham kick off?
Hull City vs Rotherham kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Rotherham?
Hull City 4 - 1 Rotherham.
Where is Hull City vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Rotherham part of?
Hull City vs Rotherham is a Championship fixture (matchday 18) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 66% chance of winning, Rotherham a 11% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Hull City and Rotherham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Hull City vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hull City's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Rotherham's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Rotherham's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 0.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 63 games and Rotherham's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
66%
1.51
22%
4.50
11%
8.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.34
0.57
Rotherham xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
8.76
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
37%
2.68
2%
51.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 9.7 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.0 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Rotherham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Hull City and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Hull City and 0.57 for Rotherham, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Rotherham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hull City come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 22D 20L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Rotherham sit at 0.98 PPG from 63 outings (13W 23D 27L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.35 PPG, Rotherham on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hull City's home form reads 12W 10D 9L across their last 31 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Rotherham have taken 0.58 points per game from their last 31 away games (2W 12D 17L). That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rotherham's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hull City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hull City are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.03 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Rotherham
Blended
Hull City (Home) vs Rotherham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Blended
Rotherham
Blended
❓ Hull City vs Rotherham Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 21W 22D 20L in their last 63 games (1.35 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 13W 23D 27L in their last 63 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Rotherham away?
Hull City's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.48 PPG; Rotherham away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Hull City or Rotherham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Rotherham in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 13 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Hull City have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Nov 2023, when Hull City won Hull City 4-1 Rotherham.
Hull City's record when hosting Rotherham specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Hull City
1
Draws
0
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Rotherham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Rotherham?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 3, Rotherham have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hull City and Rotherham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2024: Rotherham 1-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Rotherham?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 52%, Rotherham 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Hull City) and 39% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Hull City have failed to score in 26% of games; Rotherham in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Rotherham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Rotherham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Hull City's recent matches and 36% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hull City and Rotherham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Hull City's recent games and 39% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Rotherham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Hull City's recent matches and 71% of Rotherham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hull City run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Rotherham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Rotherham 4-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.77 xG and Rotherham 0.57 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.85 / defence 0.85 against Rotherham attack 0.56 / defence 1.54, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 66% | Draw 22% | Rotherham 11%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 44%, Rotherham 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Rotherham's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.35 PPG, Rotherham 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Rotherham (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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