Virtus Entella 3-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Virtus Entella face Reggiana.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Reggiana travel to Stadio Comunale to take on Virtus Entella in Serie B (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Virtus Entella — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Virtus Entella have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Reggiana have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Reggiana away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Virtus Entella 1.10 PPG, Reggiana 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Virtus Entella, 0 for Reggiana and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Virtus Entella 0–0 Reggiana — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Virtus Entella in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Reggiana in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 55% versus Reggiana 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Virtus Entella 39% | Reggiana 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 1.44 xG and Reggiana 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 0.913 / defence 1.138 | Reggiana attack 0.769 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.122. Reggiana's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Virtus Entella's last 31 games and Reggiana's last 69.
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 46% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 24%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 2.17 | Draw 3.38 | Reggiana 4.10. Virtus Entella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Virtus Entella are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Virtus Entella's last 10 home games and Reggiana's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Virtus Entella 70% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 46% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Virtus Entella 1.44 / Reggiana 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 0.913 / def 1.138 | Reggiana attack 0.769 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Reggiana xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Virtus Entella vs Reggiana FAQs
What time does Virtus Entella vs Reggiana kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Reggiana kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Stadio Comunale.
What was the final score in Virtus Entella vs Reggiana?
Virtus Entella 3 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Reggiana part of?
Virtus Entella vs Reggiana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 32) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 46% chance of winning, Reggiana a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Virtus Entella and Reggiana will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Virtus Entella vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Virtus Entella's attack rating (0.91) and Reggiana's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Virtus Entella's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Virtus Entella's last 31 games and Reggiana's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.38
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.42
0.98
Reggiana xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
6%
17.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Virtus Entella vs Reggiana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 0.98 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Virtus Entella have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 7W 10D 14L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Reggiana's form line: 7W 9D 15L from 31 games, 0.97 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Virtus Entella on 1.00 PPG, Reggiana on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Virtus Entella have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 15 home games (6W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Virtus Entella are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Reggiana have gone 3W 3D 9L from their last 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Virtus Entella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Virtus Entella are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 0.97 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
Virtus Entella (Home) vs Reggiana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Virtus Entella
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
❓ Virtus Entella vs Reggiana Form FAQs
What form are Virtus Entella and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 7W 10D 14L in their last 31 games (1.00 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 7W 9D 15L in their last 31 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Virtus Entella at home or Reggiana away?
Virtus Entella's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Virtus Entella at home: 1.60 PPG; Reggiana away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2025. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Virtus Entella
1
Draws
0
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Virtus Entella vs Reggiana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Reggiana?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Virtus Entella have won 1, Reggiana have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Virtus Entella and Reggiana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Virtus Entella 3-0 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Virtus Entella and Reggiana?
Virtus Entella have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Virtus Entella 73%, Reggiana 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Virtus Entella) and 47% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Virtus Entella vs Reggiana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Virtus Entella and Reggiana matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Virtus Entella's games and 53% of Reggiana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Virtus Entella and Reggiana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Virtus Entella's recent games and 47% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Virtus Entella and Reggiana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Virtus Entella's recent matches and 73% of Reggiana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Virtus Entella run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Virtus Entella beat Reggiana 3-0 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.44 xG and Reggiana 0.98 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Virtus Entella beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Reggiana landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.91 / defence 1.14 against Reggiana attack 0.77 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 46% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 24%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 39%, Reggiana 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Virtus Entella's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Reggiana's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Virtus Entella 1.00 PPG, Reggiana 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Virtus Entella win broke the near-deadlock. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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