Vicenza Virtus 0-2 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vicenza Virtus at 46%, yet in-form Frosinone provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vicenza Virtus vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Vicenza Virtus versus Frosinone in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 28 August 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vicenza Virtus have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Serie B outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Frosinone (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Frosinone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Frosinone arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.31 xG and Frosinone 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.971 / defence 1.150 | Frosinone attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 0.936. Data: 1 Vicenza Virtus games / 1 Frosinone games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 46% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 26%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Frosinone 3.85. Vicenza Virtus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vicenza Virtus at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Frosinone (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vicenza Virtus if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 46% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.31 / Frosinone 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.971 / def 1.150 | Frosinone attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.177 / away 0.936 • Poisson stance: Vicenza Virtus (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Frosinone xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Frosinone kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Frosinone kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Frosinone?
Vicenza Virtus 0 - 2 Frosinone.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Frosinone part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 46% chance of winning, Frosinone a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vicenza Virtus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Frosinone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Frosinone in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L. Frosinone (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vicenza Virtus's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (0.85x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vicenza Virtus Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.55
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.23
0.92
Frosinone xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
7%
14.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 0.92 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vicenza Virtus's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Frosinone, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Frosinone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Frosinone by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vicenza Virtus heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Frosinone's attacking output running into Vicenza Virtus's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Frosinone in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
Frosinone
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
0
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Frosinone?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Frosinone have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Frosinone 2-0 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 100% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 100% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Frosinone tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vicenza Virtus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Vicenza Virtus 0-2 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 1.31 xG and Frosinone 0.92 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vicenza Virtus fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Frosinone outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Frosinone attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 46% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 26%, with Vicenza Virtus to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Frosinone win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 0%, Frosinone 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Vicenza Virtus shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.