Frosinone 0-0 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Perugia make the trip to Stadio Benito Stirpe to face Frosinone in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Frosinone (all games): 1W 1D 0L across 2 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Frosinone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Perugia's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Perugia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Frosinone's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Perugia's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.31 xG and Perugia 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.030 / defence 1.270 | Perugia attack 0.850 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.020. Data: 2 Frosinone games / 2 Perugia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Frosinone 41% | Draw 27% | Perugia 31%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Perugia 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 41% | Draw 27% | Perugia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Frosinone 1.31 / Perugia 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.030 / def 1.270 | Perugia attack 0.850 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Perugia xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Perugia kick off?
Frosinone vs Perugia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Perugia?
Frosinone 0 - 0 Perugia.
Where is Frosinone vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Perugia part of?
Frosinone vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 41% chance of winning, Perugia a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Frosinone and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Perugia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Frosinone and Perugia in?
Frosinone (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W. Perugia (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (1.03) and Perugia's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.85x) against Frosinone's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.65
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.41
1.10
Perugia xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
8%
11.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.10 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Frosinone's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Frosinone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Perugia, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Perugia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Frosinone by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Perugia heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Frosinone are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Perugia in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Early Season
Perugia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Perugia in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Perugia have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Frosinone or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Perugia in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Perugia won 3-0 on 12 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Perugia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Frosinone
2
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 1, Perugia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Perugia 1-1 Frosinone.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Frosinone's recent matches and 50% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Frosinone's recent games and 50% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Perugia tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Perugia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Frosinone's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone and Perugia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.31 xG and Perugia 1.10 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Frosinone fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Perugia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.03 / defence 1.27 against Perugia attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 41% | Draw 27% | Perugia 31%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 50%, Perugia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Frosinone managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Perugia managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.