Monza 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 40%, yet in-form Cremonese provide a compelling counter-argument — this Monza vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Monza host Cremonese at U-Power Stadium in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 August 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monza stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Monza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Serie B fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cremonese — 2.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Monza's 0% and Cremonese's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.36 xG and Cremonese 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.965 / defence 1.150 | Cremonese attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.252. Data: 1 Monza games / 1 Cremonese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Monza 40% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 34%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Cremonese 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cremonese (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 40% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Monza 1.36 / Cremonese 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.965 / def 1.150 | Cremonese attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Monza (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Cremonese xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Cremonese kick off?
Monza vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Cremonese?
Monza 1 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Monza vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Cremonese part of?
Monza vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 40% chance of winning, Cremonese a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Monza and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monza and Cremonese in?
Monza (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Cremonese (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Monza's attack rating (0.96) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.79
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Monza xG
Total xG
2.58
1.22
Cremonese xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
9%
11.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Monza and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Monza and 1.22 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monza come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Monza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Monza are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 3.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Cremonese's attacking output running into Monza's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Monza have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Cremonese in 0%.
Defensively: Monza have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Cremonese in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Monza or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Cremonese in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monza and Cremonese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Monza's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Monza
1
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Monza have won 2, Cremonese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Monza 1-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Cremonese?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Monza's recent matches and 0% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Monza's recent games and 100% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Cremonese tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monza edge out Cremonese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Cremonese 1-0 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.36 xG and Cremonese 1.22 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Cremonese attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Monza 40% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 34%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 0%, Cremonese 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Monza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Monza scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Cremonese managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.