Reggina 3-2 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggina at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggina vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Oreste Granillo plays host to Reggina versus Ternana in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 29 August 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Reggina (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Reggina have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ternana's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Reggina's favour (1.00 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Reggina have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Ternana in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.08 xG and Ternana 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.770 / defence 0.990 | Ternana attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.252. Reggina's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 1 Reggina games / 1 Ternana games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Reggina 36% | Draw 30% | Ternana 34%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Ternana 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggina at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 36% | Draw 30% | Ternana 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Reggina 1.08 / Ternana 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.770 / def 0.990 | Ternana attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Reggina (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Ternana xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Ternana kick off?
Reggina vs Ternana kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Ternana?
Reggina 3 - 2 Ternana.
Where is Reggina vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Ternana part of?
Reggina vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 36% chance of winning, Ternana a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Reggina and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Ternana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggina and Ternana in?
Reggina (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Ternana (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Reggina's attack at 0.77x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (0.85x) against Reggina's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
36%
2.78
30%
3.37
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.14
1.05
Ternana xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
12%
8.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Reggina and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Reggina and 1.05 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Reggina have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Reggina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ternana's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Ternana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Reggina are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ternana.
Attack vs Defence
Reggina are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reggina have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Ternana in 0%.
Defensively: Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Early Season
Ternana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Ternana in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Ternana have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Reggina or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Ternana in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggina have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Reggina
0
Draws
2
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 2, Ternana have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2023, when Reggina 2-1 Ternana.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Ternana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Reggina's recent matches and 0% of Ternana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Reggina's recent games and 0% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Ternana tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Ternana in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reggina edge out Ternana 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Ternana 3-2 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.08 xG and Ternana 1.05 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Reggina beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ternana outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.77 / defence 0.99 against Ternana attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 36% | Draw 30% | Ternana 34%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 0%, Ternana 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Reggina scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ternana scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.