Venezia 0-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Sudtirol travel to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to take on Venezia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 January 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Venezia have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sudtirol — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 4W 2D 3L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Venezia) versus 1.20 (Sudtirol). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Venezia, 0 for Sudtirol and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 65% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 50% | Sudtirol 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.26 xG and Sudtirol 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.973 / defence 1.363 | Sudtirol attack 0.958 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.057. Data: 20 Venezia games / 20 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 33% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 39%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Sudtirol 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 70% | Sudtirol 33%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 33% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Venezia 1.26 / Sudtirol 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.973 / def 1.363 | Sudtirol attack 0.958 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Sudtirol xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Sudtirol kick off?
Venezia vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Sudtirol?
Venezia 0 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Venezia vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Sudtirol part of?
Venezia vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 33% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Venezia and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Sudtirol?
Record (1 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 0 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Venezia and Sudtirol in?
Venezia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.97) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
33%
2.99
28%
3.63
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.64
1.38
Sudtirol xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
8%
11.90
11%
9.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Venezia and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Venezia and 1.38 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Venezia have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 5D 10L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol's form line: 7W 8D 5L from 20 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sudtirol are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Venezia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Venezia have posted 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 4W 2D 3L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.10 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 5W 5D 10L in their last 20 games (1.00 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 7W 8D 5L in their last 20 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.89 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Venezia or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Sudtirol runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Venezia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Venezia
1
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 3, Sudtirol have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Sudtirol?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 67%, Sudtirol 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Venezia) and 33% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 33%; Sudtirol in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Venezia's recent matches and 33% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Venezia's recent games and 33% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sudtirol edge out Venezia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Venezia 0-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.26 xG and Sudtirol 1.38 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Venezia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.97 / defence 1.36 against Sudtirol attack 0.96 / defence 1.12, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 33% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 39%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 50%, Sudtirol 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.