Genoa 1-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus Venezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Monday 16 January 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
Genoa's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Venezia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Venezia have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Genoa, 0 for Venezia and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Genoa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 42% versus Venezia 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 39% | Venezia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.08 xG and Venezia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.817 / defence 0.871 | Venezia attack 0.972 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.075. Data: 19 Genoa games / 19 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 38% | Draw 33% | Venezia 29%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Venezia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 30% | Venezia 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Monday 16 Jan 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 38% | Draw 33% | Venezia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Genoa 1.08 / Venezia 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.817 / def 0.871 | Venezia attack 0.972 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Genoa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Venezia xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Venezia kick off?
Genoa vs Venezia kicked off at 17:45 on Monday 16 January 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Venezia?
Genoa 1 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Genoa vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Venezia part of?
Genoa vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 38% chance of winning, Venezia a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Genoa and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Venezia?
Record (3 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 2 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Genoa and Venezia in?
Genoa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Venezia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.82x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.97x) against Genoa's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
38%
2.64
33%
3.01
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Genoa xG
Total xG
1.99
0.91
Venezia xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Genoa and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Genoa and 0.91 for Venezia, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genoa come into this having played 57 games, going 13W 22D 22L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 0.82 PPG from 57 outings (11W 14D 32L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Genoa against 0.82 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Genoa's home form reads 6W 13D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 0.89 points per game from 28 outings (6W 7D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.00 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 63%.
Last 57 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Venezia in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 13W 22D 22L in their last 57 games (1.07 PPG), while Venezia have gone 11W 14D 32L in their last 57 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Venezia away?
Genoa's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.11 PPG; Venezia away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Genoa or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Venezia in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Genoa
2
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 3, Venezia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2025, when Genoa 2-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Venezia?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 39%, Venezia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Genoa) and 46% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Genoa have failed to score in 43% of games; Venezia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Genoa's recent matches and 57% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Genoa's recent games and 46% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Venezia tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Venezia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Venezia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Venezia 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.08 xG and Venezia 0.91 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Venezia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.82 / defence 0.87 against Venezia attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 38% | Draw 33% | Venezia 29%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 39%, Venezia 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Venezia's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.07 PPG, Venezia 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.