Reggina 2-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Reggina at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggina vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Oreste Granillo plays host to Reggina versus Ternana in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 21 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Reggina (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina's home record at Stadio Oreste Granillo: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Oreste Granillo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ternana's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Reggina's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Reggina, 2 for Ternana and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Ternana winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Reggina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 33% versus Ternana 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggina 40% | Ternana 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.61 xG and Ternana 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 1.105 / defence 1.109 | Ternana attack 0.938 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.057. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Reggina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Reggina games / 58 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 49% | Draw 26% | Ternana 25%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Ternana 4.00. Reggina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggina at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggina if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Reggina 30% | Ternana 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 49% | Draw 26% | Ternana 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Reggina 1.61 / Ternana 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 1.105 / def 1.109 | Ternana attack 0.938 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Reggina (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Ternana xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Ternana kick off?
Reggina vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Ternana?
Reggina 2 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Reggina vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Ternana part of?
Reggina vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 49% chance of winning, Ternana a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Reggina and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Ternana?
Record (3 meetings): Reggina 1W | Draws 0 | Ternana 2W.
What form are Reggina and Ternana in?
Reggina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Ternana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Reggina's attack at 1.10x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (0.94x) against Reggina's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.82
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.71
1.10
Ternana xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
5%
19.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Reggina and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Reggina and 1.10 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Reggina have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 24W 12D 22L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana's form line: 23W 14D 21L from 58 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Reggina against 1.43 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Reggina have posted 1.59 PPG from 29 outings (14W 4D 11L).
On the road, Ternana have gone 9W 9D 11L from 29 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Reggina are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.36 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Ternana in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 24W 12D 22L in their last 58 games (1.45 PPG), while Ternana have gone 23W 14D 21L in their last 58 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Ternana away?
Reggina's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.59 PPG; Ternana away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Reggina or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ternana in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggina have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Reggina
0
Draws
2
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 2, Ternana have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2023, when Reggina 2-1 Ternana.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 34%, Ternana 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Reggina and 62% for Ternana. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Reggina have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 34% of Reggina's games and 76% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggina vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Reggina's matches and 62% of Ternana's.
Do Reggina and Ternana tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Ternana in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reggina edge out Ternana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Ternana 2-1 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.61 xG and Ternana 1.10 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 1.10 / defence 1.11 against Ternana attack 0.94 / defence 1.26, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 49% | Draw 26% | Ternana 25%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 40%, Ternana 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Ternana's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.45 PPG, Ternana 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggina win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.