Brescia 1-3 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Frosinone make the trip to Stadio Mario Rigamonti to face Brescia in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 January 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Brescia (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia's home record at Stadio Mario Rigamonti: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Brescia are significantly better at Stadio Mario Rigamonti than their overall form suggests.
Frosinone have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Frosinone are 1.30 PPG clear of Brescia in recent Serie B fixtures (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Brescia, 1 for Frosinone and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 0–3 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 53% versus Frosinone 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 33% | Frosinone 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 0.99 xG and Frosinone 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.924 / defence 1.018 | Frosinone attack 1.097 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.039. Data: 58 Brescia games / 58 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 30% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 39%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Frosinone 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 50% | Frosinone 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 30% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Brescia 0.99 / Frosinone 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.924 / def 1.018 | Frosinone attack 1.097 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Frosinone xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Frosinone kick off?
Brescia vs Frosinone kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Frosinone?
Brescia 1 - 3 Frosinone.
Where is Brescia vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Frosinone part of?
Brescia vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 30% chance of winning, Frosinone a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Brescia and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Frosinone?
Record (3 meetings): Brescia 0W | Draws 2 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Brescia and Frosinone in?
Brescia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Frosinone (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Brescia's attack at 0.92x the league average against Frosinone's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (1.10x) against Brescia's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
30%
3.34
31%
3.20
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.15
1.16
Frosinone xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
9%
10.67
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.6 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Brescia and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Brescia and 1.16 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Brescia have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 21W 22D 15L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone's form line: 28W 16D 14L from 58 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Brescia against 1.72 for Frosinone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Brescia have posted 1.62 PPG from 29 outings (12W 11D 6L).
On the road, Frosinone have gone 10W 8D 11L from 29 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Frosinone's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brescia are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.52 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 21W 22D 15L in their last 58 games (1.47 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 28W 16D 14L in their last 58 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Frosinone away?
Brescia's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.62 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Brescia or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Frosinone in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brescia won 4-0 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Brescia
2
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Frosinone?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 1, Frosinone have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Frosinone 2-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 55%, Frosinone 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Brescia) and 45% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Frosinone in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Brescia's recent matches and 48% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Brescia's recent games and 45% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Frosinone tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Brescia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Brescia 1-3 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 0.99 xG and Frosinone 1.16 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Frosinone outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against Frosinone attack 1.10 / defence 0.93, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 30% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 39%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 33%, Frosinone 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Frosinone's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.47 PPG, Frosinone 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.