Venezia 1-2 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggina at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Reggina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 13 as Venezia welcome Reggina to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Venezia have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Venezia have posted 1W 2D 7L at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Reggina — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Reggina's 1.90 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Venezia's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Reggina in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 62% versus Reggina 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 48% | Reggina 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.81 xG and Reggina 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.711 / defence 1.451 | Reggina attack 0.799 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.076. Venezia's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Venezia games / 50 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 23% | Draw 31% | Reggina 46%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Reggina 2.17. Reggina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Reggina as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 70% | Reggina 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 23% | Draw 31% | Reggina 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Venezia 0.81 / Reggina 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.711 / def 1.451 | Reggina attack 0.799 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Reggina (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Reggina xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Reggina kick off?
Venezia vs Reggina kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Reggina?
Venezia 1 - 2 Reggina.
Where is Venezia vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Reggina part of?
Venezia vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 23% chance of winning, Reggina a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Venezia and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Reggina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Reggina in?
Venezia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Reggina (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.71) and Reggina's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reggina's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
23%
4.26
31%
3.24
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.06
1.25
Reggina xG
4.26
23%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
7%
14.84
20%
4.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 15.9 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Venezia and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Venezia and 1.25 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Venezia have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 8W 12D 30L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggina's form line: 20W 10D 20L from 50 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Reggina are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Venezia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Venezia have posted 0.60 PPG from 25 outings (3W 6D 16L).
On the road, Reggina have gone 6W 8D 11L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.06 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Reggina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Reggina in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 8W 12D 30L in their last 50 games (0.72 PPG), while Reggina have gone 20W 10D 20L in their last 50 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Reggina away?
Reggina's away record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.60 PPG; Reggina away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Venezia or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Reggina in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Venezia
0
Draws
2
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Reggina?
From 2 meetings on record, Venezia have won 0, Reggina have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Reggina 1-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Reggina?
Reggina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 68%, Reggina 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Venezia) and 20% (Reggina).
On the defensive side: Venezia have failed to score in 28% of games; Reggina in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Venezia's recent matches and 32% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Venezia's recent games and 20% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Reggina tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Reggina in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reggina edge out Venezia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Venezia 1-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.81 xG and Reggina 1.25 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.71 / defence 1.45 against Reggina attack 0.80 / defence 0.93, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 23% | Draw 31% | Reggina 46%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 48%, Reggina 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Reggina's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Reggina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.