Reggina 2-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggina at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 12 as Reggina welcome Genoa to Stadio Oreste Granillo. Kick-off is set for Monday 7 November 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reggina stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Oreste Granillo this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Oreste Granillo. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Genoa have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Reggina 1.60 PPG, Genoa 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Reggina's 20% rate and Genoa's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
Reggina trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Genoa trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 33% versus Genoa 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggina 39% | Genoa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.57 xG and Genoa 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 1.479 / defence 0.984 | Genoa attack 1.095 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.080. Reggina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.479 — their λ of 1.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Reggina games / 11 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 46% | Draw 27% | Genoa 27%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Genoa 3.70. Reggina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 55% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
On the Poisson output, Reggina are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Reggina 20% | Genoa 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Genoa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Monday 7 Nov 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 46% | Draw 27% | Genoa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Reggina 1.57 / Genoa 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 1.479 / def 0.984 | Genoa attack 1.095 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Reggina (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Genoa xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Genoa kick off?
Reggina vs Genoa kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 7 November 2022 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Genoa?
Reggina 2 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Reggina vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Genoa part of?
Reggina vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 46% chance of winning, Genoa a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Reggina and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggina and Genoa in?
Reggina (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Genoa (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Reggina's attacking strength (1.48x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Reggina's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.71
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.73
1.16
Genoa xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
6%
17.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Reggina and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Reggina and 1.16 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reggina's recent record stands at 19W 10D 20L from 49 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 10W 20D 19L across 49 games — 1.02 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggina on 1.37 PPG, Genoa on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reggina have managed 13W 2D 9L from 24 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 6W 8D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Reggina are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.84 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Genoa in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 19W 10D 20L in their last 49 games (1.37 PPG), while Genoa have gone 10W 20D 19L in their last 49 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Genoa away?
Reggina's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.71 PPG; Genoa away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Reggina or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Genoa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Reggina
0
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Genoa?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggina have won 1, Genoa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2023, when Genoa 1-0 Reggina.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 33%, Genoa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Reggina) and 42% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Reggina have failed to score in 29% of games; Genoa in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Reggina's recent matches and 46% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Reggina's recent games and 42% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Genoa tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Genoa in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reggina edge out Genoa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Genoa 2-1 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.57 xG and Genoa 1.16 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 1.48 / defence 0.98 against Genoa attack 1.09 / defence 0.86, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 46% | Draw 27% | Genoa 27%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 39%, Genoa 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.37 PPG, Genoa 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggina win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.