Cosenza 3-2 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 46%, yet in-form Palermo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cosenza vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Palermo at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cosenza — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Palermo's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cosenza's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Palermo in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 58% versus Palermo 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 58% | Palermo 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.40 xG and Palermo 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.020 / defence 1.171 | Palermo attack 0.782 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.076. Data: 50 Cosenza games / 12 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 46% | Draw 28% | Palermo 26%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Palermo 3.85. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palermo (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 50% | Palermo 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 46% | Draw 28% | Palermo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Cosenza 1.40 / Palermo 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.020 / def 1.171 | Palermo attack 0.782 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Palermo xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Palermo kick off?
Cosenza vs Palermo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Palermo?
Cosenza 3 - 2 Palermo.
Where is Cosenza vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Palermo part of?
Cosenza vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 46% chance of winning, Palermo a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cosenza and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Palermo in?
Cosenza (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Palermo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cosenza's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.51
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.39
0.99
Palermo xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
6%
15.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.99 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cosenza come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 2D 7L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.25 PPG from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 0.92 PPG, Palermo on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cosenza's home form reads 2W 0D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palermo's season.
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palermo in 25%.
Defensively: Palermo in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Palermo in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Palermo have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Palermo away?
Cosenza's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.20 PPG; Palermo away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Palermo in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Palermo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2025, when Palermo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cosenza's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cosenza
3
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Palermo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Cosenza 0-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Palermo?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 80%, Palermo 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Cosenza and 40% for Palermo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palermo in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Cosenza's recent matches and 20% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Cosenza's matches and 40% of Palermo's.
Do Cosenza and Palermo tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Palermo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cosenza edge out Palermo 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Palermo 3-2 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.40 xG and Palermo 0.99 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cosenza beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palermo outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.02 / defence 1.17 against Palermo attack 0.78 / defence 1.12, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 46% | Draw 28% | Palermo 26%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 58%, Palermo 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 0.92 PPG, Palermo 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.