Modena 1-1 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Perugia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Perugia at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Modena — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 3L across 6 games at Stadio Alberto Braglia this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Perugia have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Perugia have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Modena are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Modena in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Perugia in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 50% versus Perugia 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 50% | Perugia 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.33 xG and Perugia 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.086 / defence 1.229 | Perugia attack 0.924 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.076. Data: 12 Modena games / 50 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 39% | Draw 28% | Perugia 33%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Perugia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Perugia 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 39% | Draw 28% | Perugia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Modena 1.33 / Perugia 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.086 / def 1.229 | Perugia attack 0.924 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Modena (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Perugia xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Perugia kick off?
Modena vs Perugia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Perugia?
Modena 1 - 1 Perugia.
Where is Modena vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Perugia part of?
Modena vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 39% chance of winning, Perugia a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Modena and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Perugia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Perugia in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Perugia (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Modena's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Perugia's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.55
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Modena xG
Total xG
2.55
1.22
Perugia xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
9%
11.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Modena and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Modena and 1.22 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena's recent record stands at 4W 1D 7L from 12 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Perugia, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 9L across 12 games — 0.58 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Modena by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Perugia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Modena have managed 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Modena are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Perugia's away record stands at 1W 0D 5L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 0.67 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Perugia in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 4W 1D 7L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Perugia have gone 2W 1D 9L in their last 12 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Perugia away?
Modena's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.50 PPG; Perugia away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Modena and Perugia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Modena
1
Draws
0
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Perugia?
From 2 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Perugia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Perugia 0-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Perugia?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Perugia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Modena) and 33% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Modena have failed to score in 33% of games; Perugia in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Modena's recent matches and 33% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Modena's recent games and 33% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Perugia tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Perugia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Perugia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 13, as Modena and Perugia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.33 xG and Perugia 1.22 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.09 / defence 1.23 against Perugia attack 0.92 / defence 1.00, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 39% | Draw 28% | Perugia 33%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Perugia 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Perugia's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.08 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Modena (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.