Ternana 1-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ternana face Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ternana host Pisa at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B (matchday 19). Kick-off is Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ternana stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Ternana have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Pisa — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pisa away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ternana at 1.20 PPG versus Pisa's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Ternana, 2 for Pisa and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Apr 2023, ended Ternana 2–1 Pisa — a Ternana win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ternana trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Pisa trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 55% versus Pisa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 55% | Pisa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.14 xG and Pisa 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.870 / defence 0.888 | Pisa attack 0.838 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.164. Data: built from Ternana's last 56 games and Pisa's last 56.
Result probabilities: Ternana 41% | Draw 32% | Pisa 27%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.42 | Draw 3.17 | Pisa 3.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Ternana's last 10 home games and Pisa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ternana 50% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 41% | Draw 32% | Pisa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Ternana 1.14 / Pisa 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.870 / def 0.888 | Pisa attack 0.838 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Ternana (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Pisa xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ternana vs Pisa FAQs
What time does Ternana vs Pisa kick off?
Ternana vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Pisa?
Ternana 1 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Ternana vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Pisa part of?
Ternana vs Pisa is a Serie B fixture (matchday 19) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 41% chance of winning, Pisa a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ternana and Pisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Ternana vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.87) and Pisa's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ternana's last 56 games and Pisa's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
41%
2.42
32%
3.17
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.00
0.87
Pisa xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ternana vs Pisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ternana and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Ternana and 0.87 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Ternana have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 15W 15D 26L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Pisa's form line: 16W 20D 20L from 56 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ternana on 1.07 PPG, Pisa on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ternana have posted 1.36 PPG from their last 28 home games (10W 8D 10L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 7W 11D 10L from their last 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ternana are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.16 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Pisa
Blended
Ternana (Home) vs Pisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ternana
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Ternana vs Pisa Form FAQs
What form are Ternana and Pisa in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 15W 15D 26L in their last 56 games (1.07 PPG), while Pisa have gone 16W 20D 20L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Pisa away?
Ternana's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.36 PPG; Pisa away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Ternana or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Pisa in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Sep 2021, when Pisa won Ternana 1-4 Pisa.
Ternana's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ternana
2
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Ternana vs Pisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Pisa?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Ternana have won 1, Pisa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Pisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2024: Pisa 1-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 46%, Pisa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ternana) and 36% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Pisa in 39%; Ternana have failed to score in 29% of games; Pisa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ternana vs Pisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ternana and Pisa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ternana's recent matches and 46% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ternana and Pisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ternana's recent games and 36% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Pisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Ternana's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana and Pisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 19, as Ternana and Pisa drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.14 xG and Pisa 0.87 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.87 / defence 0.89 against Pisa attack 0.84 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 41% | Draw 32% | Pisa 27%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 55%, Pisa 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.07 PPG, Pisa 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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