Brescia 0-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Brescia welcome Parma to Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Serie B (matchday 19). Kick-off is Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Brescia have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brescia's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Parma stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Parma — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Brescia, 2 for Parma and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 7 May 2023, ended Brescia 0–2 Parma — a Parma win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Brescia in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Parma in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 50% versus Parma 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 33% | Parma 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.10 xG and Parma 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.959 / defence 1.005 | Parma attack 1.244 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.164. Parma have an above-average attack rating of 1.244, which lifts their away xG to 1.46. Data: built from Brescia's last 56 games and Parma's last 56.
Result probabilities: Brescia 28% | Draw 27% | Parma 45%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 3.55 | Draw 3.68 | Parma 2.24. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brescia 50% (last 10 home games) | Parma 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 28% | Draw 27% | Parma 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Brescia 1.10 / Parma 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.959 / def 1.005 | Parma attack 1.244 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Parma (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Parma xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brescia vs Parma FAQs
What time does Brescia vs Parma kick off?
Brescia vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Parma?
Brescia 0 - 2 Parma.
Where is Brescia vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Parma part of?
Brescia vs Parma is a Serie B fixture (matchday 19) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 28% chance of winning, Parma a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Brescia and Parma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Brescia vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brescia's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Brescia's last 56 games and Parma's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
28%
3.55
27%
3.68
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.56
1.46
Parma xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
7%
15.23
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brescia vs Parma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Brescia and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Brescia and 1.46 for Parma, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brescia come into this having played 58 games, going 15W 21D 22L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.72 PPG from 58 outings (28W 16D 14L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Parma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Brescia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brescia's home form reads 8W 10D 10L across their last 28 home games, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 28 away games (11W 9D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Brescia are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.47 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Parma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Parma
Blended
Brescia (Home) vs Parma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brescia
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Brescia vs Parma Form FAQs
What form are Brescia and Parma in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 15W 21D 22L in their last 58 games (1.14 PPG), while Parma have gone 28W 16D 14L in their last 58 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.21 PPG; Parma away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Brescia or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Parma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Parma have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Brescia's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Brescia
0
Draws
4
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Brescia vs Parma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Parma?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Brescia have won 2, Parma have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Parma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2024: Parma 2-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brescia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 50%, Parma 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Brescia) and 46% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 32%; Brescia have failed to score in 32% of games; Parma in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brescia vs Parma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brescia and Parma matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Brescia's recent matches and 50% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Brescia and Parma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Brescia's recent games and 46% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Parma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Brescia's recent matches and 68% of Parma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Brescia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Brescia 0-2 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.10 xG and Parma 1.46 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Brescia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.96 / defence 1.00 against Parma attack 1.24 / defence 0.94, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 28% | Draw 27% | Parma 45%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 33%, Parma 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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