Brescia 0-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 19 as Brescia welcome Parma to Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Brescia have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia's home record at Stadio Mario Rigamonti: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Parma — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Brescia have won 2, Parma 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Brescia in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Parma in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 50% versus Parma 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 33% | Parma 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.10 xG and Parma 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.959 / defence 1.005 | Parma attack 1.244 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.164. Parma have an above-average attack strength of 1.244 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Brescia games / 56 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 28% | Draw 27% | Parma 45%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Parma 2.22. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 50% | Parma 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 28% | Draw 27% | Parma 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Brescia 1.10 / Parma 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.959 / def 1.005 | Parma attack 1.244 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Parma (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Parma xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Parma kick off?
Brescia vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Parma?
Brescia 0 - 2 Parma.
Where is Brescia vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Parma part of?
Brescia vs Parma is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 28% chance of winning, Parma a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Brescia and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Parma?
Record (4 meetings): Brescia 2W | Draws 0 | Parma 2W.
What form are Brescia and Parma in?
Brescia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Parma (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brescia's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
28%
3.55
27%
3.68
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.56
1.46
Parma xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
7%
15.23
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Brescia and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Brescia and 1.46 for Parma, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brescia come into this having played 58 games, going 15W 21D 22L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.72 PPG from 58 outings (28W 16D 14L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Brescia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brescia's home form reads 8W 10D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.50 points per game from 28 outings (11W 9D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Brescia are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.47 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Parma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Parma in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 15W 21D 22L in their last 58 games (1.14 PPG), while Parma have gone 28W 16D 14L in their last 58 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.21 PPG; Parma away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Brescia or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Parma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brescia and Parma runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Parma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Brescia's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Brescia
0
Draws
4
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Parma have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Parma 2-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brescia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 50%, Parma 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Brescia) and 46% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 32%; Brescia have failed to score in 32% of games; Parma in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Brescia's recent matches and 50% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Brescia's recent games and 46% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Parma tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Parma in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Brescia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Brescia 0-2 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.10 xG and Parma 1.46 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Brescia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.96 / defence 1.00 against Parma attack 1.24 / defence 0.94, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 28% | Draw 27% | Parma 45%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 33%, Parma 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.