Palermo 3-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Renzo Barbera to face Palermo in Serie B (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Palermo have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Palermo have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cremonese's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cremonese's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cremonese are 1.20 PPG clear of Palermo over their recent games (2.20 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Palermo — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Cremonese — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 57% versus Cremonese 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 46% | Cremonese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.14 xG and Cremonese 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.082 / defence 1.178 | Cremonese attack 1.000 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.169. Data: built from Palermo's last 56 games and Cremonese's last 18.
Result probabilities: Palermo 30% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 41%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 3.34 | Draw 3.46 | Cremonese 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Palermo 60% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 30% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Palermo 1.14 / Cremonese 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.082 / def 1.178 | Cremonese attack 1.000 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Cremonese xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palermo vs Cremonese FAQs
What time does Palermo vs Cremonese kick off?
Palermo vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Cremonese?
Palermo 3 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Palermo vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Cremonese part of?
Palermo vs Cremonese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 19) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 30% chance of winning, Cremonese a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Palermo and Cremonese will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Palermo vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.08x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (1.00x) against Palermo's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from Palermo's last 56 games and Cremonese's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
30%
3.34
29%
3.46
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.52
1.38
Cremonese xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
8%
13.27
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palermo vs Cremonese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Palermo and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Palermo and 1.38 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 19W 21D 16L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Cremonese's form line: 14W 17D 25L from 56 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Palermo against 1.05 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 27 home games (11W 9D 7L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 6W 10D 11L from their last 27 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palermo are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.11 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
Palermo (Home) vs Cremonese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palermo
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Palermo vs Cremonese Form FAQs
What form are Palermo and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 19W 21D 16L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 14W 17D 25L in their last 56 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Cremonese away?
Palermo's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.56 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 14 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Palermo
1
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Palermo vs Cremonese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Cremonese?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Palermo have won 2, Cremonese have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Palermo and Cremonese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2025: Palermo 2-3 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Cremonese?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palermo see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 52%, Cremonese 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Palermo) and 56% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Palermo have failed to score in 30% of games; Cremonese in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palermo vs Cremonese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palermo and Cremonese matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Palermo's games and 63% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Palermo and Cremonese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Palermo's recent games and 56% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Palermo defy the odds to beat Cremonese 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Cremonese 3-2 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.14 xG and Cremonese 1.38 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.08 / defence 1.18 against Cremonese attack 1.00 / defence 0.87, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 30% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 41%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 46%, Cremonese 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.39 PPG, Cremonese 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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