Cosenza 1-2 Como – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cosenza at 37%, yet in-form Como provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cosenza vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cosenza and Como meet at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cosenza's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Como have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Como have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Como arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Cosenza, 2 for Como and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 1–5 with Como winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Como half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 46% versus Como 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 36% | Como 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.05 xG and Como 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.966 / defence 0.932 | Como attack 0.873 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.164. Data: 56 Cosenza games / 56 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 37% | Draw 32% | Como 31%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Como 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Como (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 50% | Como 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 37% | Draw 32% | Como 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Cosenza 1.05 / Como 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.966 / def 0.932 | Como attack 0.873 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Como xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Como kick off?
Cosenza vs Como kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Como?
Cosenza 1 - 2 Como.
Where is Cosenza vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Como part of?
Cosenza vs Como is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 37% chance of winning, Como a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Como?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cosenza and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Como?
Record (4 meetings): Cosenza 2W | Draws 0 | Como 2W.
What form are Cosenza and Como in?
Cosenza (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Como (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (0.97) and Como's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Como's attack (0.87x) against Cosenza's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
37%
2.73
32%
3.13
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Cosenza xG
Total xG
1.99
0.95
Como xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.95 for Como, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Cosenza have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 13W 20D 23L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Como's form line: 19W 22D 15L from 56 games, 1.41 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Cosenza against 1.41 for Como. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cosenza have posted 1.43 PPG from 28 outings (10W 10D 8L).
On the road, Como have gone 6W 12D 10L from 28 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.25 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Como in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 13W 20D 23L in their last 56 games (1.05 PPG), while Como have gone 19W 22D 15L in their last 56 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Como away?
Cosenza's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.43 PPG; Como away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Como in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Como won 5-1 on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Como — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cosenza
1
Draws
3
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Como?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Como have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Como last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Como 1-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 54%, Como 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cosenza) and 39% (Como).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Como in 36%; Como in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cosenza's recent matches and 46% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cosenza's recent games and 39% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Como tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Como in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Como defy the odds to beat Cosenza 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Cosenza 1-2 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.05 xG and Como 0.95 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Como outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against Como attack 0.87 / defence 0.89, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 37% | Draw 32% | Como 31%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Como win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 36%, Como 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Como's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.05 PPG, Como 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Como (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.