Ternana 1-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Palermo in Serie B (matchday 14). Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 15:15 UK time.
Current Form
Ternana's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Ternana have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Palermo (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Palermo away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Palermo arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Ternana edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Feb 2023, ended Ternana 0–0 Palermo — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 51% versus Palermo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 53% | Palermo 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ternana surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Palermo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.79 xG and Palermo 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.849 / defence 0.888 | Palermo attack 1.069 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.198. Data: built from Ternana's last 51 games and Palermo's last 51.
Result probabilities: Ternana 24% | Draw 34% | Palermo 42%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 4.24 | Draw 2.92 | Palermo 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 70% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ternana 40% (last 10 home games) | Palermo 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 14 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 24% | Draw 34% | Palermo 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Ternana 0.79 / Palermo 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.849 / def 0.888 | Palermo attack 1.069 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Palermo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Palermo xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ternana vs Palermo FAQs
What time does Ternana vs Palermo kick off?
Ternana vs Palermo kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Palermo?
Ternana 1 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Ternana vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Palermo part of?
Ternana vs Palermo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 14) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 24% chance of winning, Palermo a 42% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ternana and Palermo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Ternana vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ternana's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.07x) against Ternana's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Ternana's last 51 games and Palermo's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
24%
4.24
34%
2.92
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Ternana xG
Total xG
1.93
1.14
Palermo xG
4.24
24%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
8%
13.22
19%
5.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 16.6 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ternana vs Palermo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Ternana and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Ternana and 1.14 for Palermo, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ternana come into this having played 51 games, going 12W 14D 25L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.41 PPG from 51 outings (18W 18D 15L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Palermo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Ternana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ternana's home form reads 8W 7D 10L across their last 25 home games, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.20 points per game from their last 25 away games (7W 9D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ternana are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.29 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Palermo
Blended
Ternana (Home) vs Palermo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ternana
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Ternana vs Palermo Form FAQs
What form are Ternana and Palermo in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 12W 14D 25L in their last 51 games (0.98 PPG), while Palermo have gone 18W 18D 15L in their last 51 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Palermo away?
Ternana's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.24 PPG; Palermo away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 27 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ternana won Ternana 3-0 Palermo on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ternana
2
Draws
0
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Ternana vs Palermo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Palermo?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ternana have won 2, Palermo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Palermo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2024: Palermo 2-3 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Palermo?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 44%, Palermo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ternana) and 44% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ternana have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ternana vs Palermo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ternana and Palermo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ternana's recent matches and 60% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ternana and Palermo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ternana's recent games and 44% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Palermo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Ternana's recent matches and 76% of Palermo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 14, as Ternana and Palermo drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.79 xG and Palermo 1.14 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.85 / defence 0.89 against Palermo attack 1.07 / defence 0.84, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 24% | Draw 34% | Palermo 42%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 53%, Palermo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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