Cosenza 0-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Bari travel to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to take on Cosenza. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Bari have recorded 1W 3D 0L from 4 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bari have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cosenza 1.70 PPG, Bari 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cosenza register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bari in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Bari in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cosenza 50% and Bari 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 25% | Bari 75%). Note also that Bari surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Cosenza recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.63 xG and Bari 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.037 / defence 1.064 | Bari attack 1.248 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.057. Bari have an above-average attack strength of 1.248 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Cosenza games / 4 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 43% | Draw 24% | Bari 33%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Bari 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 60% | Bari 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 43% | Draw 24% | Bari 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Cosenza 1.63 / Bari 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.037 / def 1.064 | Bari attack 1.248 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Bari xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Bari kick off?
Cosenza vs Bari kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Bari?
Cosenza 0 - 1 Bari.
Where is Cosenza vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Bari part of?
Cosenza vs Bari is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 43% chance of winning, Bari a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Cosenza and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Bari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Bari in?
Cosenza (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Bari (all comps): 1W-3D-0L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (1.04) and Bari's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
43%
2.32
24%
4.17
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Cosenza xG
Total xG
3.04
1.40
Bari xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
6%
15.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.40 for Bari, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 1D 1L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bari sit at 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (1W 3D 0L), a run that reads D-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.75 PPG, Bari on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Bari's attacking output running into Cosenza's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bari in 100%.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Early Season
Bari
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Bari in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Bari have gone 1W 3D 0L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2024, when Cosenza won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cosenza's record when hosting Bari specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cosenza
2
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Bari have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Cosenza 1-0 Bari.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cosenza at 50%, Bari at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Cosenza) and 75% (Bari).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Bari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Cosenza's games and 100% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Cosenza's recent games and 75% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Bari tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bari in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bari defy the odds to beat Cosenza 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Cosenza 0-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.63 xG and Bari 1.40 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Bari attack 1.25 / defence 1.16, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 43% | Draw 24% | Bari 33%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Bari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 25%, Bari 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bari's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.75 PPG, Bari 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Bari managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.