Sudtirol 1-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Venezia at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Venezia encounter.

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Match Analysis

Sudtirol host Venezia at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Sudtirol — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Venezia stand at 9W 0D 1L — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Venezia away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Venezia are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Sudtirol have won 2, Venezia 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2025, ended Sudtirol 0–3 Venezia — a Venezia win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Venezia in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 56% versus Venezia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 50% | Venezia 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sudtirol surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Venezia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.16 xG and Venezia 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.972 / defence 0.832 | Venezia attack 1.534 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.111. Venezia have an above-average attack rating of 1.534, which lifts their away xG to 1.42. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 64 games and Venezia's last 26.

Result probabilities: Sudtirol 30% | Draw 27% | Venezia 42%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.30 | Draw 3.67 | Venezia 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 50% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 80% (last 10 away games).

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