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Poisson model rates Benevento at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Benevento host Carrarese at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Carrarese — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Carrarese's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.40 xG and Carrarese 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Carrarese attack 0.964 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Benevento games / 38 Carrarese games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Benevento 40% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 31%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Carrarese 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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