Sudtirol 1-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Sudtirol take on Modena.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Modena at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sudtirol stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Modena — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Modena are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Sudtirol, 3 for Modena and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended Sudtirol 0–0 Modena — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Modena in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 56% versus Modena 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 49% | Modena 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sudtirol surrender their half-time lead 37% of the time, while Modena have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 0.94 xG and Modena 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.740 / defence 0.930 | Modena attack 0.981 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.099. Sudtirol's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 71 games and Modena's last 70.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 31% | Draw 35% | Modena 34%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.26 | Draw 2.84 | Modena 2.93. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sudtirol's last 10 home games and Modena's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 40% (last 10 home games) | Modena 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, matchday 34 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 31% | Draw 35% | Modena 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Sudtirol 0.94 / Modena 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.740 / def 0.930 | Modena attack 0.981 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Modena xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sudtirol vs Modena FAQs
What time does Sudtirol vs Modena kick off?
Sudtirol vs Modena kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Modena?
Sudtirol 1 - 1 Modena.
Where is Sudtirol vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Modena part of?
Sudtirol vs Modena is a Serie B fixture (matchday 34) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 31% chance of winning, Modena a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sudtirol and Modena will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Sudtirol vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.74) and Modena's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sudtirol's last 71 games and Modena's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.26
35%
2.84
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
1.94
1.00
Modena xG
3.26
31%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sudtirol vs Modena Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.00 for Modena, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 19W 25D 26L from 70 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 24W 23D 23L across 70 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.17 PPG, Modena on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 10W 12D 12L from their last 34 home games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 10W 11D 13L across their last 34 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.30 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
Sudtirol (Home) vs Modena (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sudtirol
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Sudtirol vs Modena Form FAQs
What form are Sudtirol and Modena in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 19W 25D 26L in their last 70 games (1.17 PPG), while Modena have gone 24W 23D 23L in their last 70 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Modena away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.24 PPG; Modena away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Modena in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
5
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Sudtirol vs Modena H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Modena?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Sudtirol have won 1, Modena have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Modena last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Sudtirol 1-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 62%, Modena 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sudtirol) and 41% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 29% of games; Modena in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sudtirol vs Modena Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sudtirol and Modena matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sudtirol's games and 50% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sudtirol and Modena matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sudtirol's recent games and 41% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Modena matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 82% of Modena's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Modena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol and Modena finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 0.94 xG and Modena 1.00 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.74 / defence 0.93 against Modena attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 31% | Draw 35% | Modena 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 49%, Modena 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.17 PPG, Modena 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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