Sudtirol 1-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Sudtirol take on Juve Stabia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sudtirol welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B (matchday 38). Kick-off is Friday 8 May 2026 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sudtirol stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Sudtirol have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sudtirol are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Juve Stabia — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Juve Stabia's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Juve Stabia are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Sudtirol, 2 for Juve Stabia and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Dec 2025, ended Sudtirol 0–1 Juve Stabia — a Juve Stabia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 56% versus Juve Stabia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 49% | Juve Stabia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.03 xG and Juve Stabia 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.711 / defence 1.087 | Juve Stabia attack 0.909 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.062. Sudtirol's attack rating of 0.711 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 75 games and Juve Stabia's last 75.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 33% | Draw 34% | Juve Stabia 34%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.07 | Draw 2.96 | Juve Stabia 2.97. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sudtirol's last 10 home games and Juve Stabia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 50% (last 10 home games) | Juve Stabia 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 38 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 33% | Draw 34% | Juve Stabia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Sudtirol 1.03 / Juve Stabia 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.711 / def 1.087 | Juve Stabia attack 0.909 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Juve Stabia xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia FAQs
What time does Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 8 May 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Sudtirol 1 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia part of?
Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 38) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 33% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sudtirol and Juve Stabia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.71x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sudtirol's last 75 games and Juve Stabia's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.07
34%
2.96
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.08
1.05
Juve Stabia xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.05 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 20W 26D 29L from 75 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 25W 29D 21L across 75 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.15 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 10W 13D 13L from their last 36 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 6W 16D 14L across their last 36 away games, a 0.94 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.12 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Juve Stabia
Current Season
Sudtirol (Home) vs Juve Stabia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sudtirol
Current Season
Juve Stabia
Current Season
❓ Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia Form FAQs
What form are Sudtirol and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 20W 26D 29L in their last 75 games (1.15 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 25W 29D 21L in their last 75 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Juve Stabia away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.19 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Oct 2026, when Juve Stabia won Juve Stabia 3-0 Sudtirol.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
1
Draws
3
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Juve Stabia?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Sudtirol have won 1, Juve Stabia have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Juve Stabia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Juve Stabia 3-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 61%, Juve Stabia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sudtirol) and 50% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 31% of games; Juve Stabia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sudtirol and Juve Stabia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Sudtirol's games and 58% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sudtirol and Juve Stabia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sudtirol's recent games and 50% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Juve Stabia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 69% of Juve Stabia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol and Juve Stabia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.03 xG and Juve Stabia 1.05 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.71 / defence 1.09 against Juve Stabia attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 33% | Draw 34% | Juve Stabia 34%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 49%, Juve Stabia 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.15 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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