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Poisson rates Modena at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Juve Stabia encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Alberto Braglia plays host to Modena versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Quarter-finals. Kick-off: Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 17:45 UTC.

Form

Modena (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Modena's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Braglia this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Juve Stabia have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Juve Stabia away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Modena, 1.10 for Juve Stabia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Modena have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Juve Stabia in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Modena 3W, Juve Stabia 1W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Modena winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 57% versus Juve Stabia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 50% | Juve Stabia 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.41 xG and Juve Stabia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.963 / defence 0.985 | Juve Stabia attack 0.907 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.076. Data: 76 Modena games / 76 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Modena 46% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 24%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Juve Stabia 4.17. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Modena 60% | Juve Stabia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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