Modena 0-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Juve Stabia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Braglia plays host to Modena versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Quarter-finals. Kick-off: Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
Modena (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Modena's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Braglia this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Juve Stabia have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Juve Stabia away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Modena, 1.10 for Juve Stabia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Modena have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Juve Stabia in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Modena 3W, Juve Stabia 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Modena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 57% versus Juve Stabia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 50% | Juve Stabia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.41 xG and Juve Stabia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.963 / defence 0.985 | Juve Stabia attack 0.907 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.076. Data: 76 Modena games / 76 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 46% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 24%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Juve Stabia 4.17. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Modena 60% | Juve Stabia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Quarter-finals | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 May 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 46% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Modena 1.41 / Juve Stabia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.963 / def 0.985 | Juve Stabia attack 0.907 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Modena (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Juve Stabia xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Modena vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 17:45 on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Juve Stabia?
Modena 0 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Modena vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Juve Stabia part of?
Modena vs Juve Stabia is a Quarter-finals fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 46% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Modena and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Juve Stabia?
Record (4 meetings): Modena 3W | Draws 0 | Juve Stabia 1W.
What form are Modena and Juve Stabia in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Modena's attack rating (0.96) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.91x) against Modena's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 76/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
46%
2.19
30%
3.33
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Modena xG
Total xG
2.37
0.96
Juve Stabia xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
6%
16.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Modena and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Modena and 0.96 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Modena come into this having played 76 games, going 25W 25D 26L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Juve Stabia sit at 1.38 PPG from 76 outings (25W 30D 21L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Modena against 1.38 for Juve Stabia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Modena's home form reads 14W 12D 11L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Juve Stabia have taken 0.95 points per game from 37 outings (6W 17D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.12 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Juve Stabia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 25W 25D 26L in their last 76 games (1.32 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 25W 30D 21L in their last 76 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Juve Stabia away?
Modena's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.46 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won 3-0 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Modena
0
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Juve Stabia?
From 5 meetings on record, Modena have won 3, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Modena 0-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Juve Stabia?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 62%, Juve Stabia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Modena) and 49% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Juve Stabia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Modena's games and 60% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Modena's recent games and 49% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Juve Stabia defy the odds to beat Modena 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Modena 0-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Quarter-finals, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.41 xG and Juve Stabia 0.96 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Modena fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.96 / defence 0.98 against Juve Stabia attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 46% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 24%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Juve Stabia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Juve Stabia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.32 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.